Opinion Poll by YouGov, 10–13 April 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 27.0% 25.7–28.4% 25.3–28.8% 25.0–29.1% 24.3–29.8%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 18.2% 17.0–19.4% 16.7–19.7% 16.4–20.0% 15.9–20.6%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 14.0% 13.0–15.1% 12.7–15.4% 12.5–15.7% 12.0–16.3%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 13.0% 12.0–14.1% 11.7–14.4% 11.5–14.6% 11.0–15.2%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 10.0% 9.1–11.0% 8.9–11.2% 8.7–11.5% 8.3–12.0%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 4.8% 4.2–5.5% 4.1–5.7% 3.9–5.9% 3.6–6.3%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 4.0% 3.5–4.7% 3.3–4.9% 3.2–5.1% 3.0–5.4%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.5–4.7% 3.3–4.9% 3.2–5.1% 3.0–5.4%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.7% 1.4–2.2% 1.3–2.3% 1.2–2.4% 1.1–2.7%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.5% 0.7–1.6% 0.7–1.7% 0.6–1.9%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.8% 0.6–1.1% 0.5–1.2% 0.5–1.3% 0.4–1.5%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.5% 0.4–0.8% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.0% 0.2–1.1%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.5% 0.0–0.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 27 25–28 25–28 24–28 23–28
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 17 17–18 16–18 16–19 15–19
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 13 12–14 11–15 11–15 11–15
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 11 11–13 11–13 11–14 10–14
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 9 8–10 8–10 8–11 8–11
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 4 4 3–5 3–5 3–5
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 2 2 1–2 1–3
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1 1–2 1–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 1.3% 100%  
24 2% 98.7%  
25 12% 97%  
26 24% 85%  
27 30% 60% Median
28 30% 30%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 1.0% 100%  
16 6% 99.0%  
17 58% 93% Median
18 31% 35%  
19 3% 3%  
20 0.2% 0.3%  
21 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 7% 100%  
12 3% 93%  
13 60% 90% Median
14 21% 30%  
15 8% 8%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.6% 100%  
11 54% 99.4% Median
12 27% 46%  
13 16% 19%  
14 2% 3%  
15 0.4% 0.4%  
16 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 13% 100%  
9 37% 87% Median
10 46% 50%  
11 3% 3%  
12 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.2% 100%  
4 29% 99.8%  
5 71% 71% Median
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 8% 100%  
4 83% 92% Median
5 9% 9%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 32% 99.9%  
4 50% 68% Median
5 18% 18%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 3% 100%  
2 96% 97% Median
3 0.7% 0.7%  
4 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 97% 99.9% Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100% Last Result
1 95% 95% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 81% 100% Last Result, Median
1 19% 19%  
2 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 27 0% 25–28 25–28 24–28 23–28
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 11 0% 11–13 11–13 11–14 10–14
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 6 0% 5–7 5–7 5–7 4–7
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–6

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 1.3% 100%  
24 2% 98.7%  
25 12% 97%  
26 24% 85%  
27 30% 60% Median
28 30% 30%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.6% 100%  
11 54% 99.4% Median
12 27% 46%  
13 16% 19%  
14 2% 3%  
15 0.4% 0.4%  
16 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.6% 100%  
5 34% 99.4%  
6 47% 65% Median
7 19% 19%  
8 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 1.3% 100%  
4 80% 98.7% Median
5 17% 19%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations