Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov for BILD, 13–17 April 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 27.0% | 25.4–28.7% | 24.9–29.2% | 24.5–29.6% | 23.8–30.4% |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 19.0% | 17.6–20.5% | 17.2–20.9% | 16.9–21.3% | 16.2–22.1% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 14.0% | 12.8–15.3% | 12.4–15.7% | 12.1–16.1% | 11.6–16.8% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 13.0% | 11.8–14.3% | 11.5–14.7% | 11.2–15.0% | 10.7–15.7% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 11.0% | 9.9–12.2% | 9.6–12.6% | 9.3–12.9% | 8.8–13.5% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.1% | 4.3–6.0% | 4.1–6.2% | 4.0–6.5% | 3.6–6.9% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.7% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.2–4.1% | 1.9–4.5% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.7% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.2–4.1% | 1.9–4.5% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.7% | 1.3–2.3% | 1.2–2.4% | 1.1–2.6% | 0.9–2.9% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.7–1.7% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.1% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.4–1.3% | 0.4–1.4% | 0.3–1.7% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.3–1.0% | 0.2–1.1% | 0.2–1.3% |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.0–0.6% | 0.0–0.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 26 | 23–27 | 23–29 | 23–30 | 23–30 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 18 | 17–20 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 15–21 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 13 | 12–14 | 12–15 | 11–16 | 11–16 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 13 | 12–14 | 12–14 | 11–14 | 10–15 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 10 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–13 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 23 | 16% | 99.8% | |
| 24 | 15% | 84% | |
| 25 | 13% | 69% | |
| 26 | 28% | 56% | Median |
| 27 | 19% | 28% | |
| 28 | 2% | 9% | |
| 29 | 2% | 7% | |
| 30 | 4% | 4% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 16 | 9% | 99.5% | |
| 17 | 11% | 90% | |
| 18 | 46% | 79% | Median |
| 19 | 15% | 34% | |
| 20 | 18% | 19% | |
| 21 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 3% | 100% | |
| 12 | 31% | 97% | |
| 13 | 29% | 66% | Median |
| 14 | 28% | 37% | |
| 15 | 6% | 9% | |
| 16 | 3% | 3% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 1.4% | 100% | |
| 11 | 4% | 98.6% | |
| 12 | 42% | 95% | |
| 13 | 23% | 53% | Median |
| 14 | 29% | 31% | |
| 15 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 9 | 13% | 99.7% | |
| 10 | 38% | 87% | Median |
| 11 | 36% | 49% | |
| 12 | 12% | 13% | |
| 13 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 4 | 37% | 99.6% | |
| 5 | 46% | 63% | Median |
| 6 | 17% | 17% | |
| 7 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 11% | 100% | |
| 3 | 84% | 89% | Median |
| 4 | 5% | 5% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 14% | 100% | |
| 3 | 74% | 86% | Median |
| 4 | 12% | 12% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 59% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 39% | 41% | |
| 3 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 70% | 97% | Median |
| 2 | 27% | 27% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 81% | 81% | Median |
| 2 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 49% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 51% | 51% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 89% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 11% | 11% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 26 | 0% | 23–27 | 23–29 | 23–30 | 23–30 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 13 | 0% | 12–14 | 12–15 | 11–16 | 11–16 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 3–5 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 23 | 16% | 99.8% | |
| 24 | 15% | 84% | |
| 25 | 13% | 69% | |
| 26 | 28% | 56% | Median |
| 27 | 19% | 28% | |
| 28 | 2% | 9% | |
| 29 | 2% | 7% | |
| 30 | 4% | 4% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 3% | 100% | |
| 12 | 31% | 97% | |
| 13 | 29% | 66% | Median |
| 14 | 28% | 37% | |
| 15 | 6% | 9% | |
| 16 | 3% | 3% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 10% | 100% | |
| 4 | 47% | 90% | Median |
| 5 | 36% | 43% | |
| 6 | 7% | 7% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 5% | 100% | |
| 3 | 48% | 95% | |
| 4 | 43% | 47% | Median |
| 5 | 3% | 4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: INSA and YouGov
- Commissioner(s): BILD
- Fieldwork period: 13–17 April 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1201
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 3.43%