Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov for BILD, 24–27 April 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 28.0% 26.7–29.3% 26.4–29.7% 26.1–30.0% 25.5–30.7%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 18.6% 17.5–19.7% 17.2–20.0% 16.9–20.3% 16.4–20.9%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 14.0% 13.0–15.0% 12.8–15.3% 12.5–15.6% 12.1–16.1%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 12.5% 11.6–13.5% 11.3–13.8% 11.1–14.0% 10.7–14.5%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 11.0% 10.1–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.5% 9.3–12.9%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 4.9% 4.4–5.6% 4.2–5.8% 4.1–6.0% 3.8–6.3%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 3.5% 3.0–4.1% 2.9–4.2% 2.8–4.4% 2.5–4.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 3.5% 3.0–4.1% 2.9–4.2% 2.8–4.4% 2.5–4.7%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.4% 1.1–1.8% 1.0–1.9% 1.0–2.0% 0.8–2.2%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 0.8% 0.6–1.2% 0.6–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.5%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.6% 0.5–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.3%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.4% 0.3–0.7% 0.3–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.1% 0.1–0.3% 0.1–0.4% 0.0–0.4% 0.0–0.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 27 26–27 26–28 25–29 24–29
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 18 17–19 17–19 16–19 16–20
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 13 12–14 12–14 12–14 12–15
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 12 11–13 11–13 11–13 10–14
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 10 10–12 10–12 9–12 8–12
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 5 5 4–5 4–6 4–6
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 1.3% 100%  
25 3% 98.6%  
26 35% 96%  
27 51% 61% Median
28 6% 9%  
29 3% 3%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 5% 99.8%  
17 24% 95%  
18 38% 71% Median
19 32% 34%  
20 1.2% 1.3%  
21 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.5% 100%  
12 48% 99.5%  
13 39% 51% Median
14 10% 12%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 2% 100%  
11 10% 98%  
12 57% 88% Median
13 30% 31%  
14 0.5% 0.6%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 1.2% 100%  
9 2% 98.8%  
10 56% 97% Median
11 19% 41%  
12 22% 22%  
13 0.3% 0.3%  
14 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 7% 99.9%  
5 90% 93% Median
6 3% 3%  
7 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.3% 100%  
3 84% 99.7% Median
4 15% 16%  
5 1.2% 1.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.2% 100%  
3 86% 99.8% Median
4 13% 13%  
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 53% 100% Median
2 47% 47%  
3 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100% Last Result
1 99.3% 99.5% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100% Last Result
1 93% 93% Median
2 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 68% 100% Last Result, Median
1 32% 32%  
2 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 27 0% 26–27 26–28 25–29 24–29
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 13 0% 12–14 12–14 12–14 12–15
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–6 4–6 4–6
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–5 3–5 3–5

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 1.3% 100%  
25 3% 98.6%  
26 35% 96%  
27 51% 61% Median
28 6% 9%  
29 3% 3%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.5% 100%  
12 48% 99.5%  
13 39% 51% Median
14 10% 12%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 45% 99.9% Median
5 50% 55%  
6 5% 5%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.3% 100%  
3 57% 99.7% Median
4 37% 43%  
5 6% 6%  
6 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations