Opinion Poll by Forsa for RTL n-tv, 5–11 May 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 27.0% 25.9–28.2% 25.5–28.5% 25.3–28.8% 24.8–29.3%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 17.4% 16.4–18.4% 16.1–18.6% 15.9–18.9% 15.5–19.4%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 15.0% 14.1–16.0% 13.9–16.2% 13.6–16.5% 13.2–16.9%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 12.0% 11.2–12.9% 11.0–13.1% 10.8–13.3% 10.4–13.8%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 11.0% 10.2–11.8% 10.0–12.1% 9.8–12.3% 9.5–12.7%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 4.7% 4.2–5.3% 4.1–5.5% 3.9–5.6% 3.7–5.9%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 4.6% 4.1–5.2% 4.0–5.4% 3.9–5.5% 3.6–5.8%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.4–4.7% 3.3–4.8% 3.1–5.1%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.5% 1.2–1.8% 1.1–2.0% 1.1–2.0% 1.0–2.2%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 0.9% 0.7–1.2% 0.7–1.3% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.5%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.2%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–0.7% 0.3–0.8% 0.3–0.8% 0.2–1.0%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.3% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.4% 0.0–0.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 26 25–27 24–27 24–27 23–28
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 17 16–18 16–18 15–18 14–18
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 14 14–15 13–16 13–16 13–16
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 12 11–13 10–13 10–13 10–13
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 11 10–11 9–11 9–12 9–12
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–5
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–5
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 4 4 3–4 3–5 3–5
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.6% 100%  
24 7% 99.4%  
25 18% 93%  
26 63% 75% Median
27 10% 12%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.5% 100%  
15 3% 99.5%  
16 15% 96%  
17 68% 81% Median
18 13% 13%  
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.2% 100%  
13 7% 99.8%  
14 73% 92% Median
15 11% 20%  
16 8% 8%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 5% 99.9%  
11 28% 95%  
12 32% 67% Median
13 34% 34%  
14 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 5% 100%  
10 7% 95%  
11 85% 88% Median
12 3% 3%  
13 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.8% 100%  
4 78% 99.2% Median
5 21% 22%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 1.1% 100%  
4 58% 98.9% Median
5 40% 41%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 7% 100%  
4 88% 93% Median
5 4% 4%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 91% 100% Median
2 9% 9%  
3 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 99.7% 99.9% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 67% 100% Last Result, Median
1 33% 33%  
2 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 66% 100% Last Result, Median
1 34% 34%  
2 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.6% 0.6%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 26 0% 25–27 24–27 24–27 23–28
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 12 0% 11–13 10–13 10–13 10–13
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 4 0% 4–6 4–6 4–6 3–6
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 5 0% 5–6 5–6 4–6 4–7

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.6% 100%  
24 7% 99.4%  
25 18% 93%  
26 63% 75% Median
27 10% 12%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 5% 99.9%  
11 28% 95%  
12 32% 67% Median
13 34% 34%  
14 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.8% 100%  
4 61% 99.2% Median
5 21% 38%  
6 17% 17%  
7 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 5% 100%  
5 85% 95% Median
6 9% 10%  
7 0.7% 0.7%  
8 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations