Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov for BILD, 8–11 May 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 28.0% 26.7–29.3% 26.4–29.7% 26.1–30.0% 25.5–30.7%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 18.1% 17.1–19.3% 16.8–19.6% 16.5–19.9% 16.0–20.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 13.0% 12.1–14.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.6–14.6% 11.2–15.1%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 12.5% 11.6–13.5% 11.4–13.8% 11.1–14.0% 10.7–14.5%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 11.0% 10.2–12.0% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.5% 9.3–12.9%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 4.8% 4.3–5.5% 4.1–5.7% 4.0–5.9% 3.7–6.2%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 3.5% 3.0–4.1% 2.9–4.3% 2.8–4.4% 2.6–4.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 3.5% 3.0–4.1% 2.9–4.3% 2.8–4.4% 2.6–4.7%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.8% 1.5–2.3% 1.4–2.4% 1.3–2.5% 1.2–2.8%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.1% 0.9–1.5% 0.8–1.6% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.9%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.8% 0.6–1.2% 0.6–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.5%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.2%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.0–0.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 26 26–27 25–28 25–28 24–29
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 17 16–18 16–18 16–19 16–19
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 13 12–14 11–14 11–14 11–14
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 12 11–13 11–13 10–14 10–14
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 11 9–12 9–12 9–12 9–12
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–6 4–6
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1 1–2 1–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 2% 100%  
25 8% 98%  
26 42% 90% Median
27 40% 49%  
28 6% 9%  
29 2% 2%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 36% 99.9%  
17 46% 64% Median
18 14% 18%  
19 4% 4%  
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.2% 100%  
11 10% 99.8%  
12 20% 90%  
13 50% 70% Median
14 20% 20%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 3% 100%  
11 20% 97%  
12 35% 77% Median
13 39% 42%  
14 3% 3%  
15 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 17% 100%  
10 24% 83%  
11 44% 59% Median
12 15% 15%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 19% 99.9%  
5 78% 81% Median
6 3% 3%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 48% 100%  
4 52% 52% Median
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.2% 100%  
3 74% 99.8% Median
4 25% 25%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 24% 100%  
2 75% 76% Median
3 0.4% 0.4%  
4 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 97% 100% Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100% Last Result
1 92% 92% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 23% 100% Last Result
1 77% 77% Median
2 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 26 0% 26–27 25–28 25–28 24–29
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 13 0% 12–14 11–14 11–14 11–14
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 5 0% 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 4 0% 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 2% 100%  
25 8% 98%  
26 42% 90% Median
27 40% 49%  
28 6% 9%  
29 2% 2%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.2% 100%  
11 10% 99.8%  
12 20% 90%  
13 50% 70% Median
14 20% 20%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 19% 100%  
5 62% 81% Median
6 19% 20%  
7 0.4% 0.4%  
8 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 11% 100%  
4 49% 89%  
5 40% 40% Median
6 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations