Opinion Poll by Forsa for RTL n-tv, 12–18 May 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 28.0% 26.5–29.5% 26.1–29.9% 25.7–30.3% 25.0–31.1%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 17.4% 16.2–18.7% 15.8–19.1% 15.5–19.4% 15.0–20.0%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 14.0% 12.9–15.2% 12.6–15.5% 12.3–15.9% 11.8–16.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 12.0% 11.0–13.2% 10.7–13.5% 10.5–13.8% 10.0–14.4%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 11.0% 10.0–12.1% 9.8–12.4% 9.5–12.7% 9.1–13.3%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 4.7% 4.0–5.4% 3.8–5.7% 3.7–5.9% 3.4–6.3%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.7% 3.2–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 2.8–5.5%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.3–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.0–4.3%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.2–3.2%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.3% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.0% 0.7–2.3%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.9% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.8%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.1% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.4%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.0–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 27 25–28 25–28 25–28 24–29
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 17 15–18 15–18 15–18 14–20
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 13 13–14 12–15 12–15 11–15
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 11 10–12 10–12 10–13 10–14
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 11 11 10–12 9–12 9–13
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–6
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 4 4–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–4 2–4
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 0–2
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.3% 100%  
24 1.2% 99.7%  
25 37% 98%  
26 6% 62%  
27 42% 56% Median
28 13% 14%  
29 0.7% 1.0%  
30 0.2% 0.3%  
31 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 2% 100%  
15 14% 98%  
16 10% 84%  
17 31% 74% Median
18 43% 44%  
19 0.2% 0.8%  
20 0.5% 0.5%  
21 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.8% 100%  
12 5% 99.2%  
13 50% 95% Median
14 38% 45%  
15 7% 7%  
16 0.3% 0.3%  
17 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.4% 100%  
10 38% 99.6%  
11 45% 62% Median
12 12% 17%  
13 4% 5%  
14 1.0% 1.0%  
15 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 3% 100%  
10 6% 97%  
11 86% 91% Median
12 4% 5%  
13 0.8% 0.8%  
14 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 1.3% 100%  
4 42% 98.7%  
5 56% 57% Median
6 1.4% 1.4%  
7 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 8% 99.9%  
4 78% 92% Median
5 14% 14%  
6 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 19% 100%  
3 78% 81% Median
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 9% 100%  
2 89% 91% Median
3 2% 2%  
4 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 94% 100% Median
2 6% 6%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.1% 100% Last Result
1 92% 98.9% Median
2 7% 7%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 11% 100% Last Result
1 89% 89% Median
2 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 27 0% 25–28 25–28 25–28 24–29
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 11 0% 10–12 10–12 10–13 10–14
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 6 0% 6 5–7 4–7 4–7
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–5

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.3% 100%  
24 1.2% 99.7%  
25 37% 98%  
26 6% 62%  
27 42% 56% Median
28 13% 14%  
29 0.7% 1.0%  
30 0.2% 0.3%  
31 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.4% 100%  
10 38% 99.6%  
11 45% 62% Median
12 12% 17%  
13 4% 5%  
14 1.0% 1.0%  
15 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 3% 100%  
5 6% 97%  
6 83% 92% Median
7 9% 9%  
8 0.5% 0.5%  
9 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 2% 100%  
3 27% 98%  
4 70% 72% Median
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations