Opinion Poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF, 1–3 June 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 27.0% | 25.5–28.7% | 25.0–29.2% | 24.6–29.6% | 23.9–30.4% |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 19.7% | 18.3–21.2% | 17.9–21.7% | 17.6–22.0% | 17.0–22.8% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 14.0% | 12.8–15.4% | 12.5–15.7% | 12.2–16.1% | 11.7–16.7% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 12.0% | 10.9–13.3% | 10.6–13.6% | 10.3–14.0% | 9.8–14.6% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 11.0% | 9.9–12.2% | 9.6–12.5% | 9.4–12.8% | 8.9–13.5% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.3% | 4.6–6.2% | 4.3–6.5% | 4.2–6.7% | 3.9–7.1% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 4.2% | 3.5–5.0% | 3.3–5.2% | 3.2–5.4% | 2.9–5.9% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.7% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.1–4.1% | 1.9–4.4% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 1.0–1.8% | 0.9–2.0% | 0.8–2.1% | 0.7–2.4% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.4–1.5% | 0.3–1.7% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–0.9% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.2–1.4% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.2–0.9% | 0.2–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.0–0.6% | 0.0–0.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 26 | 24–27 | 24–28 | 23–28 | 23–29 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 19 | 17–20 | 17–21 | 16–21 | 16–22 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 14 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 11–15 | 11–16 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 12 | 10–12 | 9–13 | 9–14 | 9–14 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 10 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–12 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 23 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 24 | 13% | 97% | |
| 25 | 23% | 83% | |
| 26 | 20% | 60% | Median |
| 27 | 33% | 40% | |
| 28 | 6% | 7% | |
| 29 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 17% | 96% | |
| 18 | 29% | 79% | |
| 19 | 33% | 50% | Median |
| 20 | 8% | 17% | |
| 21 | 8% | 9% | |
| 22 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 3% | 100% | |
| 12 | 10% | 97% | |
| 13 | 23% | 87% | |
| 14 | 31% | 64% | Median |
| 15 | 31% | 33% | |
| 16 | 2% | 2% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 6% | 100% | |
| 10 | 17% | 94% | |
| 11 | 26% | 77% | |
| 12 | 42% | 51% | Median |
| 13 | 5% | 9% | |
| 14 | 4% | 4% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 9 | 30% | 99.8% | |
| 10 | 36% | 70% | Median |
| 11 | 21% | 34% | |
| 12 | 12% | 13% | |
| 13 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 32% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 46% | 67% | Median |
| 6 | 20% | 21% | |
| 7 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 10% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 60% | 90% | Median |
| 5 | 25% | 30% | |
| 6 | 5% | 5% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 20% | 100% | |
| 3 | 66% | 80% | Median |
| 4 | 14% | 14% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 82% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 18% | 18% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 86% | 90% | Median |
| 2 | 4% | 4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 38% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 62% | 62% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 52% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 48% | 48% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 78% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 22% | 22% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 26 | 0% | 24–27 | 24–28 | 23–28 | 23–29 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 12 | 0% | 10–12 | 9–13 | 9–14 | 9–14 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 23 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 24 | 13% | 97% | |
| 25 | 23% | 83% | |
| 26 | 20% | 60% | Median |
| 27 | 33% | 40% | |
| 28 | 6% | 7% | |
| 29 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 6% | 100% | |
| 10 | 17% | 94% | |
| 11 | 26% | 77% | |
| 12 | 42% | 51% | Median |
| 13 | 5% | 9% | |
| 14 | 4% | 4% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 7% | 100% | |
| 4 | 32% | 93% | Median |
| 5 | 41% | 61% | |
| 6 | 20% | 20% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Forschungsgruppe Wahlen
- Commissioner(s): ZDF
- Fieldwork period: 1–3 June 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1247
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.09%