Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov for BILD, 1–5 June 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 29.0% 27.4–30.7% 26.9–31.2% 26.5–31.7% 25.8–32.5%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 16.6% 15.3–18.0% 14.9–18.4% 14.6–18.8% 14.0–19.5%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 14.0% 12.8–15.4% 12.5–15.8% 12.2–16.1% 11.6–16.8%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 12.0% 10.9–13.3% 10.6–13.7% 10.3–14.0% 9.8–14.6%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 11.0% 9.9–12.3% 9.6–12.6% 9.4–12.9% 8.9–13.5%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 4.4% 3.7–5.3% 3.5–5.5% 3.4–5.7% 3.1–6.1%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 1.9–4.5%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 1.9–4.5%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 2.3% 1.8–3.0% 1.7–3.2% 1.6–3.3% 1.4–3.7%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.2% 0.9–2.3% 0.8–2.7%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.7% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.1%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.4–1.4% 0.3–1.7%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 28 25–29 25–29 25–29 24–32
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 16 15–18 15–18 14–18 14–18
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 13 13–15 13–15 12–15 11–16
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 12 10–13 10–13 10–13 9–13
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 11 10–11 10–12 10–12 9–13
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 4 4–5 4–5 3–5 3–5
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 1–2
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.6% 100%  
25 12% 99.3%  
26 12% 87%  
27 21% 76%  
28 38% 55% Median
29 15% 17%  
30 1.1% 2%  
31 0.5% 1.2%  
32 0.7% 0.7%  
33 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.3% 100%  
14 3% 99.7%  
15 35% 96%  
16 32% 62% Median
17 15% 30%  
18 14% 14%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 1.0% 100%  
12 4% 99.0%  
13 57% 95% Median
14 10% 39%  
15 28% 29%  
16 0.8% 0.8%  
17 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 1.2% 100%  
10 21% 98.8%  
11 17% 78%  
12 32% 61% Median
13 28% 29%  
14 0.3% 0.4%  
15 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.2% 100%  
9 2% 99.8%  
10 31% 98%  
11 61% 67% Median
12 5% 6%  
13 0.7% 0.7%  
14 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 3% 100%  
4 54% 97% Median
5 43% 43%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 44% 100%  
3 39% 56% Median
4 18% 18%  
5 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 34% 100%  
3 52% 66% Median
4 13% 13%  
5 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.4% 100%  
2 83% 99.6% Median
3 16% 16%  
4 0.3% 0.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 63% 100% Median
2 37% 37%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 98% 99.9% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 97% 98% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 6% 6%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 28 0% 25–29 25–29 25–29 24–32
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 12 0% 10–13 10–13 10–13 9–13
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 4 0% 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.6% 100%  
25 12% 99.3%  
26 12% 87%  
27 21% 76%  
28 38% 55% Median
29 15% 17%  
30 1.1% 2%  
31 0.5% 1.2%  
32 0.7% 0.7%  
33 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 1.2% 100%  
10 21% 98.8%  
11 17% 78%  
12 32% 61% Median
13 28% 29%  
14 0.3% 0.4%  
15 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 46% 99.9%  
4 36% 54% Median
5 18% 18%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations