Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov for BILD, 5–8 June 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 29.0% 27.7–30.3% 27.4–30.7% 27.1–31.0% 26.5–31.7%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 16.6% 15.5–17.7% 15.3–18.0% 15.0–18.3% 14.5–18.8%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 14.5% 13.5–15.5% 13.2–15.8% 13.0–16.1% 12.6–16.6%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.3% 10.6–13.5% 10.2–14.0%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 10.5% 9.7–11.4% 9.4–11.7% 9.2–11.9% 8.8–12.4%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 4.4% 3.9–5.1% 3.7–5.3% 3.6–5.4% 3.4–5.8%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 3.5% 3.0–4.1% 2.9–4.2% 2.8–4.4% 2.5–4.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 3.5% 3.0–4.1% 2.9–4.2% 2.8–4.4% 2.5–4.7%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 2.0% 1.7–2.5% 1.6–2.7% 1.5–2.8% 1.4–3.0%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.3% 1.0–1.7% 0.9–1.8% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.9% 0.7–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.6% 0.5–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.3%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 27 26–29 26–29 26–29 26–29
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 16 16–17 15–17 15–17 14–18
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 14 13–14 13–15 13–15 12–15
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 12 11–13 11–13 10–13 10–13
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 10 9–11 9–11 9–11 9–12
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 4 4 4–5 4–5 3–5
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 2 2 1–2 1–3
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1 1–2 1–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0.3% 100%  
26 43% 99.7%  
27 9% 57% Median
28 18% 48%  
29 29% 30%  
30 0.2% 0.3%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.3% 100%  
14 0.7% 99.7%  
15 5% 99.0%  
16 69% 94% Median
17 24% 25%  
18 0.8% 0.8%  
19 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 2% 100%  
13 37% 98%  
14 55% 61% Median
15 5% 6%  
16 0.4% 0.5%  
17 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 4% 100%  
11 12% 96%  
12 41% 84% Median
13 43% 44%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.5% 100%  
9 23% 99.5%  
10 35% 77% Median
11 41% 42%  
12 0.7% 0.7%  
13 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.7% 100%  
4 90% 99.3% Median
5 9% 9%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.4% 100%  
3 74% 99.6% Median
4 26% 26%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.3% 100%  
3 79% 99.7% Median
4 20% 21%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 3% 100%  
2 96% 97% Median
3 0.8% 0.8%  
4 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 97% 100% Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100% Last Result
1 99.3% 99.7% Median
2 0.4% 0.4%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100% Last Result
1 95% 95% Median
2 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 27 0% 26–29 26–29 26–29 26–29
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 12 0% 11–13 11–13 10–13 10–13
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 3–5 3–5

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0.3% 100%  
26 43% 99.7%  
27 9% 57% Median
28 18% 48%  
29 29% 30%  
30 0.2% 0.3%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 4% 100%  
11 12% 96%  
12 41% 84% Median
13 43% 44%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 5% 100%  
4 70% 95% Median
5 25% 25%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations