Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov for BILD, 12–15 June 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 29.0% 27.7–30.3% 27.4–30.7% 27.1–31.0% 26.4–31.7%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 17.6% 16.6–18.8% 16.3–19.1% 16.0–19.4% 15.5–19.9%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 14.5% 13.5–15.5% 13.2–15.8% 13.0–16.1% 12.5–16.6%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.8–13.2% 10.6–13.5% 10.2–14.0%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 10.5% 9.6–11.4% 9.4–11.7% 9.2–11.9% 8.8–12.4%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 4.4% 3.9–5.0% 3.7–5.2% 3.6–5.4% 3.3–5.7%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 3.5% 3.0–4.1% 2.9–4.3% 2.8–4.4% 2.6–4.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 3.5% 3.0–4.1% 2.9–4.3% 2.8–4.4% 2.6–4.7%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.7% 1.4–2.1% 1.3–2.3% 1.2–2.4% 1.1–2.6%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.0% 0.8–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.8%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.8% 0.6–1.1% 0.5–1.2% 0.5–1.3% 0.4–1.5%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.5% 0.4–0.8% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.0% 0.2–1.1%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.0–0.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 28 26–29 26–30 26–30 26–30
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 17 15–18 15–18 15–18 15–19
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 13 13–15 12–15 12–16 12–16
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 12 10–12 10–12 10–13 10–13
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 11 9–11 9–11 9–11 8–12
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 4 4–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–4
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 3 3–4 3–5 3–5 2–5
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0.5% 100%  
26 10% 99.5%  
27 17% 90%  
28 45% 73% Median
29 22% 28%  
30 6% 7%  
31 0.4% 0.4%  
32 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.1% 100%  
15 17% 99.9%  
16 10% 82%  
17 27% 73% Median
18 43% 46%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.5% 100%  
12 5% 99.5%  
13 54% 94% Median
14 29% 40%  
15 9% 11%  
16 3% 3%  
17 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.3% 100%  
10 11% 99.7%  
11 22% 88%  
12 61% 66% Median
13 5% 5%  
14 0.3% 0.4%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 1.0% 100%  
9 17% 99.0%  
10 31% 82%  
11 50% 52% Median
12 1.1% 1.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 6% 100%  
4 74% 94% Median
5 19% 20%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.7% 100%  
3 72% 99.3% Median
4 27% 27%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 1.0% 100%  
3 63% 99.0% Median
4 30% 36%  
5 6% 6%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 43% 100%  
2 57% 57% Median
3 0.3% 0.3%  
4 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 93% 100% Median
2 7% 7%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 35% 100% Last Result
1 64% 65% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 49% 100% Last Result
1 51% 51% Median
2 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 28 0% 26–29 26–30 26–30 26–30
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 12 0% 10–12 10–12 10–13 10–13
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 4 0% 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0.5% 100%  
26 10% 99.5%  
27 17% 90%  
28 45% 73% Median
29 22% 28%  
30 6% 7%  
31 0.4% 0.4%  
32 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.3% 100%  
10 11% 99.7%  
11 22% 88%  
12 61% 66% Median
13 5% 5%  
14 0.3% 0.4%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 44% 99.9%  
4 33% 56% Median
5 23% 23%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations