Opinion Poll by Red C for Business Post, 17–22 March 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) 19.5% 31.0% 29.2–33.0% 28.7–33.5% 28.3–34.0% 27.4–34.9%
Fine Gael (EPP) 22.3% 22.0% 20.4–23.7% 19.9–24.2% 19.5–24.7% 18.8–25.5%
Fianna Fáil (RE) 22.3% 15.0% 13.7–16.6% 13.3–17.0% 12.9–17.4% 12.3–18.1%
Independents (*) 19.8% 9.3% 8.2–10.5% 7.9–10.9% 7.6–11.2% 7.1–11.9%
Social Democrats (S&D) 0.0% 6.0% 5.1–7.0% 4.9–7.3% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.2%
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.4% 3.6–5.3% 3.4–5.6% 3.3–5.8% 3.0–6.3%
Labour Party (S&D) 5.3% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) 1.5% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.7%
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 4.9% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.7%
Aontú (*) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) 3 6 5–6 5–6 5–7 5–7
Fine Gael (EPP) 4 4 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–5
Fianna Fáil (RE) 1 1 1–2 1–3 1–3 1–3
Independents (*) 3 1 1 1 1 0–1
Social Democrats (S&D) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Labour Party (S&D) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Aontú (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0% 100%  
5 33% 100%  
6 63% 67% Median
7 5% 5% Majority
8 0% 0%  

Fine Gael (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 13% 100%  
3 8% 87%  
4 79% 80% Last Result, Median
5 1.0% 1.0%  
6 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 89% 100% Last Result, Median
2 2% 11%  
3 9% 9%  
4 0% 0%  

Independents (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.3% 100%  
1 98.7% 98.7% Median
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0% Last Result

Social Democrats (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 59% 100% Median
2 41% 41%  
3 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Labour Party (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Green Party (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Aontú (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aontú (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael (EPP) 4 4 0% 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–5
Fianna Fáil (RE) 1 1 0% 1–2 1–3 1–3 1–3
Social Democrats (S&D) – Labour Party (S&D) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Fine Gael (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 13% 100%  
3 8% 87%  
4 79% 80% Last Result, Median
5 1.0% 1.0%  
6 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 89% 100% Last Result, Median
2 2% 11%  
3 9% 9%  
4 0% 0%  

Social Democrats (S&D) – Labour Party (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 59% 100% Median
2 41% 41%  
3 0% 0%  

Green Party (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations