Aontú (*)

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 0.0% (General Election of 7 June 2024)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 6.4% 5.4–7.8% 5.2–8.2% 5.0–8.5% 4.7–9.1%
5 June 2026 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 5.9% 5.2–6.7% 5.0–7.0% 4.9–7.2% 4.5–7.6%
22–27 May 2026 RED C
Business Post		 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.4%
1 May 2026 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.1% 5.9–8.3% 5.6–8.7%
17–22 April 2026 RED C
Business Post		 6.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
2–3 April 2026 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 6.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
20–25 March 2026 RED C
Business Post		 6.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
27 February 2026 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 5.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
13–19 February 2026 RED C
Business Post		 5.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 February 2026 Ipsos B&A
The Irish Times		 3.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
30 January 2026 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 6.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
16–21 January 2026 RED C
Business Post		 5.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
19 December 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 6.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
4–5 December 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 5.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
26 November 2025 RED C
Business Post		 6.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
31 October 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 6.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
21 October 2025 RED C
Business Post		 4.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
13–15 October 2025 Ipsos B&A
The Irish Times		 3.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
2–3 October 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 6.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
4–9 September 2025 RED C
Business Post		 3.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 September 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 4.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 August 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 4.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
15 July 2025 Ipsos B&A
The Irish Times		 2.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 July 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 5.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
25 June 2025 RED C
Business Post		 5.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
30 May 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 5.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
22 May 2025 RED C
Business Post		 4.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–2 May 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 4.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
18–23 April 2025 RED C
Business Post		 5.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
17 April 2025 Ipsos B&A
Irish Times		 1.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
3–4 April 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 4.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
26 March 2025 RED C
Business Post		 4.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
28 February 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 3.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
19 February 2025 RED C
Business Post		 4.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
31 January–1 February 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 4.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
22 January 2025 RED C
Business Post		 4.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
10–11 January 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 5.3% N/A N/A N/A N/A
22–26 November 2024 RED C
Business Post		 4.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
20–23 November 2024 Ipsos B&A
Irish Times		 3.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
21–22 November 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 5.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
7–13 November 2024 Opinions
The Sunday Times		 2.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
12–13 November 2024 Ipsos B&A
Irish Times		 3.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–7 November 2024 RED C
Business Post		 5.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–2 November 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 3.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
18–23 October 2024 RED C
Business Post		 3.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
16–22 October 2024 RED C
Business Post		 4.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
10–16 October 2024 Opinions
The Sunday Times		 2.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 October 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 4.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
13–19 September 2024 Opinions
The Sunday Times		 2.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
14–17 September 2024 Ipsos B&A
Irish Times		 1.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
5–10 September 2024 RED C
Business Post		 4.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
31 August 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 3.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
29–30 August 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 3.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 August 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 4.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 July 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 4.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
26 June 2024 RED C
Business Post		 3.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Aontú (*).

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0.0–0.5% 0% 100% Last Result
0.5–1.5% 0% 100%  
1.5–2.5% 0% 100%  
2.5–3.5% 0% 100%  
3.5–4.5% 0.3% 100%  
4.5–5.5% 13% 99.7%  
5.5–6.5% 41% 87% Median
6.5–7.5% 31% 45%  
7.5–8.5% 13% 15%  
8.5–9.5% 2% 2%  
9.5–10.5% 0.1% 0.1%  
10.5–11.5% 0% 0%  

Seats

Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 7 June 2024)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
5 June 2026 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
22–27 May 2026 RED C
Business Post		 1 1 1 1 1
1 May 2026 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 1 1 1 1 1
17–22 April 2026 RED C
Business Post		          
2–3 April 2026 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
20–25 March 2026 RED C
Business Post		          
27 February 2026 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
13–19 February 2026 RED C
Business Post		          
3 February 2026 Ipsos B&A
The Irish Times		          
30 January 2026 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
16–21 January 2026 RED C
Business Post		          
19 December 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
4–5 December 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
26 November 2025 RED C
Business Post		          
31 October 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
21 October 2025 RED C
Business Post		          
13–15 October 2025 Ipsos B&A
The Irish Times		          
2–3 October 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
4–9 September 2025 RED C
Business Post		          
5 September 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
1 August 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
15 July 2025 Ipsos B&A
The Irish Times		          
4 July 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
25 June 2025 RED C
Business Post		          
30 May 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
22 May 2025 RED C
Business Post		          
1–2 May 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
18–23 April 2025 RED C
Business Post		          
17 April 2025 Ipsos B&A
Irish Times		          
3–4 April 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
26 March 2025 RED C
Business Post		          
28 February 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
19 February 2025 RED C
Business Post		          
31 January–1 February 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
22 January 2025 RED C
Business Post		          
10–11 January 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
22–26 November 2024 RED C
Business Post		          
20–23 November 2024 Ipsos B&A
Irish Times		          
21–22 November 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
7–13 November 2024 Opinions
The Sunday Times		          
12–13 November 2024 Ipsos B&A
Irish Times		          
1–7 November 2024 RED C
Business Post		          
1–2 November 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
18–23 October 2024 RED C
Business Post		          
16–22 October 2024 RED C
Business Post		          
10–16 October 2024 Opinions
The Sunday Times		          
4 October 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
13–19 September 2024 Opinions
The Sunday Times		          
14–17 September 2024 Ipsos B&A
Irish Times		          
5–10 September 2024 RED C
Business Post		          
31 August 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
29–30 August 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
2 August 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
5 July 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
26 June 2024 RED C
Business Post		          

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Aontú (*).

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100% Last Result
1 92% 92% Median
2 0% 0%