Opinion Poll by Behaviour and Attitudes for The Sunday Times, 27 April–9 May 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) 19.5% 35.0% 33.0–37.1% 32.4–37.6% 31.9–38.2% 31.0–39.2%
Fianna Fáil (RE) 22.3% 22.0% 20.3–23.8% 19.8–24.3% 19.4–24.8% 18.6–25.7%
Fine Gael (EPP) 22.3% 17.0% 15.5–18.7% 15.1–19.2% 14.7–19.6% 14.0–20.4%
Independents (*) 19.8% 7.9% 6.9–9.2% 6.6–9.6% 6.4–9.9% 5.9–10.5%
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 4.9% 5.0% 4.1–6.0% 3.9–6.3% 3.7–6.6% 3.4–7.1%
Labour Party (S&D) 5.3% 4.0% 3.2–4.9% 3.0–5.2% 2.9–5.5% 2.6–6.0%
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.8% 3.0–4.7% 2.9–5.0% 2.7–5.2% 2.4–5.7%
Social Democrats (S&D) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.8–4.8%
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) 1.5% 1.0% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.9% 0.4–2.2%
Aontú (*) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.9% 0.4–2.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) 3 6 6 6 6 6–7
Fianna Fáil (RE) 1 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Fine Gael (EPP) 4 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Independents (*) 3 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Labour Party (S&D) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Social Democrats (S&D) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Aontú (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 97% 99.9% Median
7 2% 2% Majority
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0.2% 100%  
3 21% 99.8%  
4 78% 78% Median
5 0% 0%  

Fine Gael (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.3% 100%  
2 85% 99.7% Median
3 15% 15%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Independents (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 78% 100% Median
1 22% 22%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0% Last Result

Green Party (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Labour Party (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Social Democrats (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 16% 100% Last Result
1 84% 84% Median
2 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Aontú (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aontú (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil (RE) 1 4 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Fine Gael (EPP) 4 2 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Labour Party (S&D) – Social Democrats (S&D) 0 1 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Fianna Fáil (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0.2% 100%  
3 21% 99.8%  
4 78% 78% Median
5 0% 0%  

Fine Gael (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.3% 100%  
2 85% 99.7% Median
3 15% 15%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party (S&D) – Social Democrats (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 16% 100% Last Result
1 84% 84% Median
2 0% 0%  

Green Party (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations