Opinion Poll by NC Report for La Razón, 11–15 June 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0.0% | 34.4% | 32.0–36.8% | 31.4–37.5% | 30.8–38.1% | 29.7–39.3% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0.0% | 29.8% | 27.5–32.1% | 26.9–32.8% | 26.4–33.4% | 25.3–34.5% |
| Vox (PfE) | 0.0% | 10.3% | 8.9–12.0% | 8.5–12.4% | 8.2–12.8% | 7.5–13.7% |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0.0% | 4.3% | 3.4–5.5% | 3.2–5.8% | 3.0–6.1% | 2.6–6.8% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.8% | 3.0–5.0% | 2.8–5.3% | 2.6–5.6% | 2.3–6.2% |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.5% | 2.8–4.6% | 2.5–5.0% | 2.4–5.2% | 2.0–5.8% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 1.8–3.4% | 1.7–3.7% | 1.5–4.0% | 1.3–4.5% |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.8% | 1.3–2.7% | 1.2–3.0% | 1.1–3.2% | 0.9–3.7% |
| Junts per Catalunya (NI) | 0.0% | 1.8% | 1.3–2.7% | 1.2–3.0% | 1.1–3.2% | 0.9–3.7% |
| Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.7% | 1.2–2.5% | 1.1–2.8% | 0.9–3.0% | 0.7–3.5% |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.8–2.0% | 0.7–2.2% | 0.6–2.4% | 0.5–2.8% |
| Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–2.0% | 0.5–2.2% | 0.4–2.6% |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3–1.0% | 0.2–1.2% | 0.2–1.3% | 0.1–1.7% |
| Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.0–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% | 0.0–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 22 | 22–24 | 22–24 | 22–25 | 20–26 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 19 | 19–21 | 18–21 | 18–21 | 18–23 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–4 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Junts per Catalunya (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 21 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 22 | 61% | 98% | Median |
| 23 | 16% | 37% | |
| 24 | 17% | 20% | |
| 25 | 2% | 3% | |
| 26 | 1.4% | 1.5% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 7% | 99.8% | |
| 19 | 62% | 93% | Median |
| 20 | 10% | 31% | |
| 21 | 20% | 21% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 23 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 18% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 10% | 82% | |
| 7 | 65% | 72% | Median |
| 8 | 7% | 7% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 25% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 75% | 75% | Median |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 17% | 100% | |
| 2 | 20% | 83% | |
| 3 | 63% | 63% | Median |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Podemos (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 96% | 98% | Median |
| 3 | 2% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 33% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 67% | 67% | Median |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 67% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 33% | 33% | |
| 2 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 96% | 97% | Median |
| 2 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 64% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 28% | 36% | |
| 2 | 8% | 8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 78% | 79% | Median |
| 2 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 87% | 87% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.5% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 22 | 0% | 22–24 | 22–24 | 22–25 | 20–26 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 19 | 0% | 19–21 | 18–21 | 18–21 | 18–23 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 21 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 22 | 61% | 98% | Median |
| 23 | 16% | 37% | |
| 24 | 17% | 20% | |
| 25 | 2% | 3% | |
| 26 | 1.4% | 1.5% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 7% | 99.8% | |
| 19 | 62% | 93% | Median |
| 20 | 10% | 31% | |
| 21 | 20% | 21% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 23 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 18% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 10% | 82% | |
| 7 | 65% | 72% | Median |
| 8 | 7% | 7% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: NC Report
- Commissioner(s): La Razón
- Fieldwork period: 11–15 June 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 652
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 3.25%