Opinion Poll by CIS, 1–4 July 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0.0% 32.9% 31.9–33.9% 31.7–34.1% 31.4–34.4% 31.0–34.8%
Partido Popular (EPP) 0.0% 30.2% 29.3–31.1% 29.0–31.4% 28.8–31.6% 28.3–32.1%
Vox (PfE) 0.0% 12.2% 11.6–12.9% 11.4–13.1% 11.2–13.3% 10.9–13.6%
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.1% 3.7–4.5% 3.6–4.6% 3.5–4.8% 3.3–5.0%
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.0% 3.6–4.4% 3.5–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.2–4.9%
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) 0.0% 2.7% 2.4–3.1% 2.3–3.2% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.4%
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.5% 2.2–2.9% 2.1–3.0% 2.1–3.1% 1.9–3.2%
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.7% 1.5–2.0% 1.4–2.1% 1.3–2.1% 1.2–2.3%
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0.0% 1.6% 1.4–1.9% 1.3–2.0% 1.2–2.0% 1.1–2.2%
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.2% 1.0–1.5% 0.9–1.5% 0.9–1.6% 0.8–1.7%
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) 0.0% 1.1% 0.9–1.3% 0.9–1.4% 0.8–1.5% 0.7–1.6%
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.6% 0.5–0.8% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–0.9% 0.3–1.0%
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.5% 0.2–0.5% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.6%
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0.0% 0.1% 0.0–0.2% 0.0–0.2% 0.0–0.3% 0.0–0.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 22 22–23 22–24 22–24 21–24
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 21 20–22 20–22 20–22 20–22
Vox (PfE) 0 8 8–9 7–9 7–9 7–9
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 2% 100%  
22 53% 98% Median
23 37% 46%  
24 9% 9%  
25 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.2% 100%  
20 37% 99.8%  
21 37% 63% Median
22 26% 26%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 7% 100%  
8 69% 93% Median
9 24% 24%  
10 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 65% 100% Median
3 35% 35%  
4 0% 0%  

Podemos (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 51% 100% Median
3 49% 49%  
4 0% 0%  

Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 73% 100% Median
2 27% 27%  
3 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 93% 100% Median
2 7% 7%  
3 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100% Last Result
1 93% 93% Median
2 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya (NI) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 12% 100% Last Result
1 88% 88% Median
2 0% 0%  

Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 67% 100% Last Result, Median
1 33% 33%  
2 0% 0%  

Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Last Result, Median
1 9% 9%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 22 0% 22–23 22–24 22–24 21–24
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 21 0% 20–22 20–22 20–22 20–22
Vox (PfE) 0 8 0% 8–9 7–9 7–9 7–9
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 2% 100%  
22 53% 98% Median
23 37% 46%  
24 9% 9%  
25 0% 0%  

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.2% 100%  
20 37% 99.8%  
21 37% 63% Median
22 26% 26%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 7% 100%  
8 69% 93% Median
9 24% 24%  
10 0% 0%  

Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations