Opinion Poll by NC Report for La Razón, 20–23 August 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0.0% | 35.4% | 33.1–37.9% | 32.4–38.6% | 31.8–39.2% | 30.7–40.3% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0.0% | 28.7% | 26.5–31.0% | 25.9–31.7% | 25.4–32.3% | 24.3–33.4% |
| Vox (PfE) | 0.0% | 9.6% | 8.3–11.2% | 7.9–11.7% | 7.6–12.1% | 7.0–13.0% |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0.0% | 3.8% | 3.0–5.0% | 2.8–5.3% | 2.6–5.6% | 2.3–6.2% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.7% | 2.9–4.8% | 2.7–5.1% | 2.5–5.4% | 2.1–6.0% |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.5% | 2.7–4.6% | 2.5–4.9% | 2.3–5.2% | 2.0–5.8% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.7–3.2% | 1.5–3.5% | 1.4–3.7% | 1.2–4.3% |
| Junts per Catalunya (NI) | 0.0% | 1.8% | 1.3–2.7% | 1.2–3.0% | 1.1–3.2% | 0.9–3.7% |
| Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.1–2.3% | 0.9–2.6% | 0.8–2.8% | 0.7–3.2% |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.1–2.3% | 0.9–2.6% | 0.8–2.8% | 0.7–3.2% |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 0.9–2.2% | 0.8–2.4% | 0.7–2.6% | 0.6–3.0% |
| Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–2.0% | 0.5–2.2% | 0.4–2.6% |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3–1.0% | 0.2–1.2% | 0.2–1.3% | 0.1–1.7% |
| Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.0–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% | 0.0–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 25 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 22–26 | 22–27 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 20 | 20 | 19–20 | 18–21 | 18–22 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–3 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Junts per Catalunya (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 10% | 99.6% | |
| 23 | 2% | 89% | |
| 24 | 5% | 87% | |
| 25 | 79% | 82% | Median |
| 26 | 3% | 3% | |
| 27 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 19 | 7% | 97% | |
| 20 | 87% | 90% | Median |
| 21 | 2% | 3% | |
| 22 | 2% | 2% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 92% | 96% | Median |
| 7 | 4% | 5% | |
| 8 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 83% | 98% | Median |
| 3 | 15% | 15% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 6% | 97% | |
| 3 | 91% | 91% | Median |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Podemos (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 78% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 19% | 22% | |
| 3 | 3% | 3% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 97% | 99.8% | Median |
| 2 | 3% | 3% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 76% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 22% | 24% | |
| 2 | 2% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 84% | 85% | Median |
| 2 | 2% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 95% | 95% | Median |
| 2 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 84% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 16% | 16% | |
| 2 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 88% | 88% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 25 | 0% | 22–25 | 22–25 | 22–26 | 22–27 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 20 | 0% | 20 | 19–20 | 18–21 | 18–22 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 6 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 10% | 99.6% | |
| 23 | 2% | 89% | |
| 24 | 5% | 87% | |
| 25 | 79% | 82% | Median |
| 26 | 3% | 3% | |
| 27 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 19 | 7% | 97% | |
| 20 | 87% | 90% | Median |
| 21 | 2% | 3% | |
| 22 | 2% | 2% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 92% | 96% | Median |
| 7 | 4% | 5% | |
| 8 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: NC Report
- Commissioner(s): La Razón
- Fieldwork period: 20–23 August 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 655
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.26%