Opinion Poll by Sigma Dos for El Mundo, 22–29 August 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0.0% 35.4% 34.2–36.7% 33.8–37.1% 33.5–37.4% 32.9–38.0%
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0.0% 28.8% 27.6–30.0% 27.3–30.3% 27.0–30.7% 26.4–31.2%
Vox (PfE) 0.0% 9.6% 8.9–10.4% 8.7–10.7% 8.5–10.9% 8.1–11.3%
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.2% 3.7–4.8% 3.6–4.9% 3.5–5.1% 3.2–5.4%
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) 0.0% 3.4% 3.0–3.9% 2.8–4.1% 2.7–4.2% 2.5–4.5%
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–4.0% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4%
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.6% 2.2–3.1% 2.1–3.2% 2.0–3.3% 1.9–3.6%
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0.0% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9%
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.8% 1.5–2.2% 1.4–2.3% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.6%
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.4% 1.1–1.8% 1.0–1.9% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.1%
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) 0.0% 1.3% 1.0–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–2.0%
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.8% 0.6–1.1% 0.5–1.2% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.4%
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) 0.0% 0.5% 0.4–0.7% 0.3–0.8% 0.3–0.9% 0.2–1.0%
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 25 24–25 24–25 24–26 23–26
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 20 18–20 18–21 18–21 17–21
Vox (PfE) 0 6 6–7 5–8 5–8 5–8
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) 0 2 2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 0–1 0–1
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 100%  
23 2% 99.9%  
24 39% 98%  
25 55% 59% Median
26 3% 4%  
27 0.5% 0.5%  
28 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 1.5% 100%  
18 11% 98.5%  
19 33% 87%  
20 46% 55% Median
21 9% 9%  
22 0.4% 0.4%  
23 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 8% 100%  
6 42% 92% Median
7 40% 50%  
8 10% 10%  
9 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.2% 100%  
2 51% 99.8% Median
3 49% 49%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 9% 100%  
2 89% 91% Median
3 2% 2%  
4 0% 0%  

Podemos (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 15% 100%  
2 85% 85% Median
3 0.7% 0.7%  
4 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 76% 100% Median
2 24% 24%  
3 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100% Last Result
1 99.3% 99.6% Median
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100% Last Result
1 96% 96% Median
2 0% 0%  

Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 55% 100% Last Result, Median
1 45% 45%  
2 0% 0%  

Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 56% 100% Last Result, Median
1 44% 44%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 25 0% 24–25 24–25 24–26 23–26
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 20 0% 18–20 18–21 18–21 17–21
Vox (PfE) 0 6 0% 6–7 5–8 5–8 5–8
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 100%  
23 2% 99.9%  
24 39% 98%  
25 55% 59% Median
26 3% 4%  
27 0.5% 0.5%  
28 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 1.5% 100%  
18 11% 98.5%  
19 33% 87%  
20 46% 55% Median
21 9% 9%  
22 0.4% 0.4%  
23 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 8% 100%  
6 42% 92% Median
7 40% 50%  
8 10% 10%  
9 0% 0%  

Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations