Opinion Poll by CIS, 2–6 September 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0.0% 33.0% 32.1–34.0% 31.8–34.2% 31.6–34.5% 31.1–34.9%
Partido Popular (EPP) 0.0% 28.5% 27.6–29.4% 27.3–29.7% 27.1–29.9% 26.7–30.4%
Vox (PfE) 0.0% 13.1% 12.4–13.8% 12.3–14.0% 12.1–14.2% 11.8–14.5%
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.8% 4.4–5.3% 4.3–5.4% 4.2–5.5% 4.0–5.8%
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.6% 3.2–4.0% 3.1–4.1% 3.1–4.2% 2.9–4.4%
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.0% 2.7–3.4% 2.6–3.5% 2.5–3.6% 2.3–3.7%
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) 0.0% 2.9% 2.6–3.3% 2.5–3.4% 2.4–3.5% 2.3–3.7%
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.4% 1.2–1.7% 1.1–1.7% 1.1–1.8% 1.0–2.0%
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0.0% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 0.9–1.8%
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.1% 0.9–1.3% 0.9–1.4% 0.8–1.5% 0.7–1.6%
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) 0.0% 0.9% 0.7–1.1% 0.7–1.2% 0.6–1.2% 0.6–1.4%
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.8% 0.6–1.0% 0.6–1.1% 0.6–1.1% 0.5–1.2%
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.4% 0.2–0.5% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.6%
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0.0% 0.1% 0.0–0.2% 0.0–0.2% 0.0–0.3% 0.0–0.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 24 23–24 22–24 22–24 22–24
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 20 19–20 19–20 19–21 19–21
Vox (PfE) 0 9 8–9 8–9 8–10 8–10
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0 3 3 3 3 2–4
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 7% 99.9%  
23 28% 93%  
24 64% 65% Median
25 0.3% 0.3%  
26 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.1% 100%  
19 32% 99.9%  
20 64% 68% Median
21 4% 4%  
22 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 19% 100%  
9 79% 81% Median
10 3% 3%  
11 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.5% 100%  
3 98% 99.5% Median
4 1.0% 1.0%  
5 0% 0%  

Podemos (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 100%  
2 82% 99.9% Median
3 18% 18%  
4 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 52% 100% Median
2 48% 48%  
3 0% 0%  

Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 51% 100% Median
2 49% 49%  
3 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 78% 100% Last Result, Median
1 22% 22%  
2 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 53% 100% Last Result, Median
1 47% 47%  
2 0% 0%  

Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 24 0% 23–24 22–24 22–24 22–24
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 20 0% 19–20 19–20 19–21 19–21
Vox (PfE) 0 9 0% 8–9 8–9 8–10 8–10
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 7% 99.9%  
23 28% 93%  
24 64% 65% Median
25 0.3% 0.3%  
26 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.1% 100%  
19 32% 99.9%  
20 64% 68% Median
21 4% 4%  
22 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 19% 100%  
9 79% 81% Median
10 3% 3%  
11 0% 0%  

Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations