Opinion Poll by Celeste-Tel for Onda Cero, 22 October 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0.0% 35.6% 33.1–38.3% 32.4–39.1% 31.7–39.8% 30.5–41.1%
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0.0% 29.3% 26.8–31.8% 26.2–32.6% 25.6–33.2% 24.5–34.5%
Vox (PfE) 0.0% 10.8% 9.3–12.7% 8.8–13.2% 8.5–13.7% 7.8–14.6%
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.2% 3.3–5.5% 3.0–5.9% 2.8–6.2% 2.4–6.9%
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.7% 2.8–4.9% 2.6–5.3% 2.4–5.6% 2.0–6.2%
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.6% 1.9–3.7% 1.7–4.0% 1.5–4.3% 1.3–4.8%
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) 0.0% 2.6% 1.9–3.7% 1.7–4.0% 1.5–4.3% 1.3–4.8%
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0.0% 1.8% 1.3–2.8% 1.1–3.1% 1.0–3.3% 0.8–3.9%
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.6% 1.1–2.6% 1.0–2.9% 0.9–3.1% 0.7–3.6%
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.5% 1.0–2.4% 0.9–2.6% 0.7–2.9% 0.6–3.4%
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) 0.0% 1.3% 0.8–2.1% 0.7–2.4% 0.6–2.6% 0.5–3.1%
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.5% 0.4–1.7% 0.3–1.9% 0.2–2.3%
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–1.2% 0.2–1.4% 0.2–1.6% 0.1–2.0%
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.9% 0.0–1.0% 0.0–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 24 22–25 22–26 20–27 20–28
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 20 19–22 18–22 17–23 17–23
Vox (PfE) 0 6 6–8 6–9 6–9 5–10
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0 2 2–4 2–4 2–4 1–4
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2–3 2–3 1–3 1–4
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 0–3
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.1% 100%  
20 3% 99.9%  
21 2% 97%  
22 16% 95%  
23 13% 79%  
24 23% 66% Median
25 37% 43%  
26 3% 6%  
27 3% 4%  
28 0.6% 0.6%  
29 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.3% 100%  
17 3% 99.7%  
18 4% 97%  
19 25% 93%  
20 47% 68% Median
21 9% 21%  
22 9% 12%  
23 3% 3%  
24 0.3% 0.3%  
25 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 2% 99.9%  
6 50% 98% Median
7 20% 48%  
8 23% 29%  
9 4% 5%  
10 1.1% 1.3%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 2% 100%  
2 51% 98% Median
3 27% 47%  
4 19% 20%  
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Podemos (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 5% 100%  
2 67% 95% Median
3 27% 28%  
4 1.0% 1.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 76% 99.9% Median
2 24% 24%  
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.1% 100% Last Result
1 64% 98.9% Median
2 34% 35%  
3 0.5% 0.6%  
4 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 15% 100% Last Result
1 81% 85% Median
2 4% 4%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 30% 100% Last Result
1 70% 70% Median
2 0.5% 0.5%  
3 0% 0%  

Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 38% 100% Last Result
1 59% 62% Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 52% 100% Last Result, Median
1 47% 48%  
2 0.7% 0.7%  
3 0% 0%  

Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 5% 5%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 8% 8%  
2 0% 0%  

Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 24 0% 22–25 22–26 20–27 20–28
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 20 0% 19–22 18–22 17–23 17–23
Vox (PfE) 0 6 0% 6–8 6–9 6–9 5–10
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.1% 100%  
20 3% 99.9%  
21 2% 97%  
22 16% 95%  
23 13% 79%  
24 23% 66% Median
25 37% 43%  
26 3% 6%  
27 3% 4%  
28 0.6% 0.6%  
29 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.3% 100%  
17 3% 99.7%  
18 4% 97%  
19 25% 93%  
20 47% 68% Median
21 9% 21%  
22 9% 12%  
23 3% 3%  
24 0.3% 0.3%  
25 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 2% 99.9%  
6 50% 98% Median
7 20% 48%  
8 23% 29%  
9 4% 5%  
10 1.1% 1.3%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations