Opinion Poll by GAD3 for ABC, 21–24 October 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0.0% | 34.1% | 32.2–36.0% | 31.7–36.6% | 31.2–37.1% | 30.3–38.0% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0.0% | 28.2% | 26.4–30.1% | 25.9–30.6% | 25.5–31.0% | 24.7–31.9% |
| Vox (PfE) | 0.0% | 12.9% | 11.6–14.3% | 11.2–14.7% | 10.9–15.1% | 10.4–15.8% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 5.2% | 4.4–6.2% | 4.2–6.5% | 4.0–6.8% | 3.6–7.3% |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.3% | 2.7–4.2% | 2.5–4.4% | 2.4–4.6% | 2.1–5.1% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.6–4.1% | 2.5–4.3% | 2.3–4.5% | 2.1–5.0% |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.4–2.5% | 1.3–2.7% | 1.2–2.9% | 1.0–3.3% |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.7% | 1.2–2.3% | 1.1–2.5% | 1.0–2.7% | 0.9–3.0% |
| Junts per Catalunya (NI) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.2–2.2% | 1.1–2.4% | 1.0–2.5% | 0.8–2.9% |
| Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.0–2.0% | 0.9–2.1% | 0.8–2.3% | 0.7–2.6% |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.8–2.0% | 0.7–2.2% | 0.6–2.5% |
| Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.2–1.0% | 0.2–1.1% | 0.1–1.4% |
| Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0–0.4% | 0.0–0.5% | 0.0–0.5% | 0.0–0.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 23 | 21–24 | 21–25 | 21–26 | 20–26 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 19 | 17–20 | 16–20 | 16–21 | 16–22 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 9 | 8–10 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–11 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Junts per Catalunya (NI) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 20 | 1.3% | 99.8% | |
| 21 | 17% | 98% | |
| 22 | 11% | 81% | |
| 23 | 25% | 70% | Median |
| 24 | 41% | 46% | |
| 25 | 2% | 5% | |
| 26 | 3% | 3% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 9% | 100% | |
| 17 | 3% | 91% | |
| 18 | 36% | 88% | |
| 19 | 26% | 52% | Median |
| 20 | 22% | 26% | |
| 21 | 4% | 5% | |
| 22 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 8% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 26% | 92% | |
| 9 | 31% | 66% | Median |
| 10 | 33% | 34% | |
| 11 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 70% | 97% | Median |
| 4 | 26% | 27% | |
| 5 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Podemos (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 18% | 100% | |
| 2 | 74% | 82% | Median |
| 3 | 9% | 9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 12% | 100% | |
| 2 | 85% | 88% | Median |
| 3 | 3% | 3% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 91% | 93% | Median |
| 2 | 2% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 88% | 89% | Median |
| 2 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 45% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 55% | 55% | Median |
| 2 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 50% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 50% | 50% | Median |
| 2 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 73% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 26% | 27% | |
| 2 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 86% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 14% | 14% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 23 | 0% | 21–24 | 21–25 | 21–26 | 20–26 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 19 | 0% | 17–20 | 16–20 | 16–21 | 16–22 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 9 | 0% | 8–10 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–11 |
| Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 20 | 1.3% | 99.8% | |
| 21 | 17% | 98% | |
| 22 | 11% | 81% | |
| 23 | 25% | 70% | Median |
| 24 | 41% | 46% | |
| 25 | 2% | 5% | |
| 26 | 3% | 3% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 9% | 100% | |
| 17 | 3% | 91% | |
| 18 | 36% | 88% | |
| 19 | 26% | 52% | Median |
| 20 | 22% | 26% | |
| 21 | 4% | 5% | |
| 22 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 8% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 26% | 92% | |
| 9 | 31% | 66% | Median |
| 10 | 33% | 34% | |
| 11 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: GAD3
- Commissioner(s): ABC
- Fieldwork period: 21–24 October 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1018
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.51%