Opinion Poll by Sigma Dos for El Mundo, 13–26 December 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0.0% 34.4% 33.2–35.7% 32.8–36.0% 32.6–36.3% 32.0–36.9%
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0.0% 27.1% 26.0–28.3% 25.6–28.6% 25.4–28.9% 24.8–29.4%
Vox (PfE) 0.0% 12.4% 11.6–13.3% 11.3–13.5% 11.2–13.8% 10.8–14.2%
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.7% 4.2–5.3% 4.1–5.5% 3.9–5.6% 3.7–5.9%
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.9% 3.5–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.1%
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) 0.0% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–4.0% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.3%
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.5% 2.1–2.9% 2.0–3.0% 1.9–3.2% 1.8–3.4%
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.9% 1.6–2.3% 1.5–2.4% 1.4–2.5% 1.3–2.7%
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0.0% 1.8% 1.5–2.2% 1.4–2.3% 1.4–2.4% 1.2–2.6%
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.1% 0.9–1.4% 0.8–1.5% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.8%
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.0% 0.8–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6%
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) 0.0% 1.0% 0.8–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6%
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) 0.0% 0.4% 0.3–0.6% 0.2–0.7% 0.2–0.7% 0.2–0.9%
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.5% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 23 23–24 23–24 22–25 22–25
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 19 17–20 17–20 17–20 17–20
Vox (PfE) 0 9 8–9 8–9 8–9 7–9
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0 3 3 2–3 2–4 2–4
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) 0 2 2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0 1 1 1 0–1 0–1
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 3% 100%  
23 62% 97% Median
24 31% 36%  
25 4% 5%  
26 0.4% 0.4%  
27 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 100%  
17 12% 99.9%  
18 32% 88%  
19 16% 56% Median
20 39% 40%  
21 0.3% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 1.4% 100%  
8 32% 98.6%  
9 66% 66% Median
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Podemos (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 6% 100%  
3 90% 94% Median
4 4% 4%  
5 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 72% 100% Median
3 28% 28%  
4 0% 0%  

Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 7% 100%  
2 92% 93% Median
3 2% 2%  
4 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 91% 100% Median
2 9% 9%  
3 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 37% 100% Last Result
1 63% 63% Median
2 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100% Last Result
1 97% 97% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 5% 5%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 85% 100% Last Result, Median
1 15% 15%  
2 0% 0%  

Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 5% 5%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 23 0% 23–24 23–24 22–25 22–25
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 19 0% 17–20 17–20 17–20 17–20
Vox (PfE) 0 9 0% 8–9 8–9 8–9 7–9
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 3% 100%  
23 62% 97% Median
24 31% 36%  
25 4% 5%  
26 0.4% 0.4%  
27 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 100%  
17 12% 99.9%  
18 32% 88%  
19 16% 56% Median
20 39% 40%  
21 0.3% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 1.4% 100%  
8 32% 98.6%  
9 66% 66% Median
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations