Opinion Poll by GAD3 for ABC, 16–23 January 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0.0% 34.9% 33.0–36.8% 32.5–37.4% 32.0–37.8% 31.2–38.8%
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0.0% 27.3% 25.6–29.2% 25.1–29.7% 24.7–30.1% 23.9–31.0%
Vox (PfE) 0.0% 14.2% 12.9–15.7% 12.5–16.1% 12.2–16.5% 11.6–17.2%
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.3% 3.5–5.2% 3.3–5.4% 3.2–5.7% 2.9–6.1%
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.6% 2.1–3.4% 1.9–3.6% 1.8–3.8% 1.6–4.2%
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) 0.0% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.9% 1.5–2.6% 1.4–2.8% 1.2–3.0% 1.1–3.3%
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.6% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.1%
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.1% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.6%
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) 0.0% 1.1% 0.7–1.6% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–1.9% 0.5–2.2%
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.5%
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) 0.0% 0.4% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.1–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 25 23–25 22–25 21–25 21–27
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 19 18–19 17–20 17–20 16–21
Vox (PfE) 0 10 9–10 8–10 8–11 8–11
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–4
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2–3 2–3 1–3 1–4
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) 0 1 1 1–2 0–2 0–2
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 0–1 0–2
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.3% 100%  
21 4% 99.7%  
22 5% 96%  
23 15% 91%  
24 9% 76%  
25 66% 68% Median
26 0.4% 1.3%  
27 0.8% 0.9%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.7% 100%  
17 5% 99.2%  
18 13% 94%  
19 72% 80% Median
20 7% 8%  
21 0.8% 0.9%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.3% 100%  
8 10% 99.7%  
9 14% 90%  
10 73% 76% Median
11 3% 4%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.6% 100%  
2 81% 99.4% Median
3 17% 19%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Podemos (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 3% 100%  
2 84% 97% Median
3 12% 12%  
4 0.7% 0.7%  
5 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 87% 99.9% Median
2 12% 13%  
3 1.1% 1.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100% Last Result
1 90% 96% Median
2 6% 6%  
3 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100% Last Result
1 94% 97% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 67% 100% Last Result, Median
1 32% 33%  
2 0.8% 0.8%  
3 0% 0%  

Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 77% 100% Last Result, Median
1 23% 23%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 87% 100% Last Result, Median
1 13% 13%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 25 0% 23–25 22–25 21–25 21–27
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 19 0% 18–19 17–20 17–20 16–21
Vox (PfE) 0 10 0% 9–10 8–10 8–11 8–11

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.3% 100%  
21 4% 99.7%  
22 5% 96%  
23 15% 91%  
24 9% 76%  
25 66% 68% Median
26 0.4% 1.3%  
27 0.8% 0.9%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.7% 100%  
17 5% 99.2%  
18 13% 94%  
19 72% 80% Median
20 7% 8%  
21 0.8% 0.9%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.3% 100%  
8 10% 99.7%  
9 14% 90%  
10 73% 76% Median
11 3% 4%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations