Opinion Poll by Sigma Dos for El Mundo, 24–31 January 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0.0% 33.7% 32.4–35.0% 32.1–35.3% 31.8–35.7% 31.2–36.3%
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0.0% 27.6% 26.4–28.8% 26.1–29.2% 25.8–29.5% 25.3–30.1%
Vox (PfE) 0.0% 13.1% 12.2–14.1% 12.0–14.3% 11.8–14.6% 11.4–15.0%
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.7% 4.2–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.9–5.6% 3.7–5.9%
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.0% 3.5–4.5% 3.3–4.7% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.1%
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) 0.0% 3.2% 2.8–3.7% 2.7–3.9% 2.6–4.0% 2.4–4.3%
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.4% 2.1–2.9% 2.0–3.0% 1.9–3.2% 1.7–3.4%
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0.0% 1.7% 1.4–2.1% 1.3–2.2% 1.2–2.3% 1.1–2.5%
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.7% 1.4–2.1% 1.3–2.2% 1.2–2.3% 1.1–2.5%
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.0% 0.8–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7%
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) 0.0% 1.0% 0.8–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7%
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 0.9% 0.7–1.2% 0.6–1.3% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.6%
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) 0.0% 0.4% 0.3–0.6% 0.2–0.7% 0.2–0.7% 0.2–0.9%
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 23 22–24 22–25 22–25 21–25
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 19 18–20 18–20 18–20 17–21
Vox (PfE) 0 9 8–10 8–10 8–10 7–10
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–4 2–4
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 2% 100%  
22 15% 98%  
23 56% 84% Median
24 20% 27%  
25 7% 7%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 2% 100%  
18 42% 98%  
19 23% 56% Median
20 31% 33%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 2% 100%  
8 41% 98%  
9 37% 57% Median
10 21% 21%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Podemos (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 17% 100%  
3 79% 83% Median
4 4% 4%  
5 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 90% 100% Median
3 10% 10%  
4 0% 0%  

Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 28% 100%  
2 72% 72% Median
3 0.4% 0.4%  
4 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 80% 100% Median
2 20% 20%  
3 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 16% 100% Last Result
1 84% 84% Median
2 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100% Last Result
1 91% 91% Median
2 0% 0%  

Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 64% 100% Last Result, Median
1 36% 36%  
2 0% 0%  

Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 85% 100% Last Result, Median
1 15% 15%  
2 0% 0%  

Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 23 0% 22–24 22–25 22–25 21–25
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 19 0% 18–20 18–20 18–20 17–21
Vox (PfE) 0 9 0% 8–10 8–10 8–10 7–10
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 2% 100%  
22 15% 98%  
23 56% 84% Median
24 20% 27%  
25 7% 7%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 2% 100%  
18 42% 98%  
19 23% 56% Median
20 31% 33%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 2% 100%  
8 41% 98%  
9 37% 57% Median
10 21% 21%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations