Opinion Poll by CIS, 31 January–6 February 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0.0% 33.4% 32.4–34.4% 32.2–34.6% 32.0–34.9% 31.5–35.3%
Partido Popular (EPP) 0.0% 28.1% 27.2–29.0% 26.9–29.3% 26.7–29.5% 26.3–30.0%
Vox (PfE) 0.0% 13.3% 12.6–14.0% 12.5–14.2% 12.3–14.4% 12.0–14.7%
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.4% 4.0–4.8% 3.9–5.0% 3.8–5.1% 3.6–5.3%
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.0% 3.6–4.4% 3.5–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.2–4.8%
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.4% 2.2–2.8% 2.1–2.9% 2.0–3.0% 1.9–3.2%
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) 0.0% 1.6% 1.4–1.9% 1.3–2.0% 1.2–2.1% 1.2–2.2%
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.6% 1.4–1.9% 1.3–2.0% 1.2–2.1% 1.2–2.2%
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0.0% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 0.9–1.9%
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 0.9–1.9%
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) 0.0% 1.0% 0.8–1.2% 0.8–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5%
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.8% 0.6–1.0% 0.6–1.1% 0.5–1.1% 0.5–1.2%
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.4% 0.2–0.5% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.6%
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0.0% 0.1% 0.0–0.2% 0.0–0.2% 0.0–0.3% 0.0–0.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 23 22–25 22–25 22–25 22–25
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 20 19–21 19–21 19–21 18–21
Vox (PfE) 0 9 8–9 8–10 8–10 8–10
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 0–1 0–1
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 34% 99.9%  
23 42% 66% Median
24 13% 24%  
25 11% 11%  
26 0.3% 0.3%  
27 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 1.3% 100%  
19 36% 98.7%  
20 43% 62% Median
21 20% 20%  
22 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 30% 100%  
9 62% 70% Median
10 8% 8%  
11 0% 0%  

Podemos (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 31% 100%  
3 69% 69% Median
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 43% 100%  
3 57% 57% Median
4 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 88% 100% Median
2 12% 12%  
3 0% 0%  

Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 17% 100% Last Result
1 83% 83% Median
2 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100% Last Result
1 97% 97% Median
2 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 38% 100% Last Result
1 62% 62% Median
2 0% 0%  

Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 44% 100% Last Result
1 56% 56% Median
2 0% 0%  

Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.4% 1.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 23 0% 22–25 22–25 22–25 22–25
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 20 0% 19–21 19–21 19–21 18–21
Vox (PfE) 0 9 0% 8–9 8–10 8–10 8–10
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 34% 99.9%  
23 42% 66% Median
24 13% 24%  
25 11% 11%  
26 0.3% 0.3%  
27 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 1.3% 100%  
19 36% 98.7%  
20 43% 62% Median
21 20% 20%  
22 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 30% 100%  
9 62% 70% Median
10 8% 8%  
11 0% 0%  

Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations