Opinion Poll by SocioMétrica for El Español, 12–14 February 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0.0% | 33.8% | 32.4–35.2% | 32.0–35.6% | 31.6–36.0% | 31.0–36.7% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0.0% | 27.8% | 26.5–29.2% | 26.1–29.6% | 25.8–29.9% | 25.2–30.6% |
| Vox (PfE) | 0.0% | 14.3% | 13.3–15.4% | 13.0–15.7% | 12.8–16.0% | 12.3–16.5% |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 4.4% | 3.8–5.1% | 3.7–5.3% | 3.6–5.5% | 3.3–5.8% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 4.1% | 3.5–4.8% | 3.4–4.9% | 3.3–5.1% | 3.0–5.4% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.1–3.1% | 2.0–3.2% | 1.9–3.4% | 1.7–3.7% |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.8–2.7% | 1.7–2.9% | 1.6–3.0% | 1.4–3.3% |
| Junts per Catalunya (NI) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.7–2.6% | 1.6–2.7% | 1.5–2.9% | 1.4–3.1% |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.8% | 1.5–2.3% | 1.4–2.4% | 1.3–2.6% | 1.1–2.8% |
| Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.1–1.8% | 1.0–1.9% | 0.9–2.0% | 0.8–2.3% |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.5% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.7–1.7% | 0.6–1.9% |
| Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.5–1.8% |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% |
| Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0–0.3% | 0.0–0.4% | 0.0–0.4% | 0.0–0.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 23 | 22–23 | 21–24 | 21–24 | 21–25 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 18 | 18–20 | 18–20 | 17–20 | 17–21 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 9 | 9–10 | 9–10 | 8–10 | 8–11 |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Junts per Catalunya (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–2 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 21 | 5% | 99.8% | |
| 22 | 31% | 95% | |
| 23 | 55% | 64% | Median |
| 24 | 7% | 8% | |
| 25 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 3% | 100% | |
| 18 | 50% | 97% | Median |
| 19 | 30% | 48% | |
| 20 | 16% | 18% | |
| 21 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 4% | 100% | |
| 9 | 63% | 96% | Median |
| 10 | 31% | 33% | |
| 11 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Podemos (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 25% | 100% | |
| 3 | 74% | 75% | Median |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 47% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 53% | 53% | Median |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 88% | 99.9% | Median |
| 2 | 12% | 12% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 95% | 99.9% | Median |
| 2 | 5% | 5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 98% | 98% | Median |
| 2 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 93% | 93% | Median |
| 2 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 31% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 69% | 69% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 77% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 23% | 23% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 91% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 9% | 9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 23 | 0% | 22–23 | 21–24 | 21–24 | 21–25 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 18 | 0% | 18–20 | 18–20 | 17–20 | 17–21 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 9 | 0% | 9–10 | 9–10 | 8–10 | 8–11 |
| Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 21 | 5% | 99.8% | |
| 22 | 31% | 95% | |
| 23 | 55% | 64% | Median |
| 24 | 7% | 8% | |
| 25 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 3% | 100% | |
| 18 | 50% | 97% | Median |
| 19 | 30% | 48% | |
| 20 | 16% | 18% | |
| 21 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 4% | 100% | |
| 9 | 63% | 96% | Median |
| 10 | 31% | 33% | |
| 11 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: SocioMétrica
- Commissioner(s): El Español
- Fieldwork period: 12–14 February 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1812
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.40%