Opinion Poll by SocioMétrica for El Español, 19–22 May 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0.0% 34.9% 33.5–36.3% 33.1–36.7% 32.7–37.1% 32.0–37.8%
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0.0% 29.0% 27.6–30.4% 27.3–30.8% 26.9–31.1% 26.3–31.8%
Vox (PfE) 0.0% 13.5% 12.5–14.6% 12.3–14.9% 12.0–15.2% 11.6–15.7%
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.1% 3.5–4.8% 3.4–4.9% 3.3–5.1% 3.0–5.4%
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.4% 2.9–4.0% 2.7–4.2% 2.6–4.3% 2.4–4.6%
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.0% 1.7–2.5% 1.6–2.7% 1.5–2.8% 1.3–3.1%
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.6% 1.4–2.7% 1.3–3.0%
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0.0% 1.9% 1.5–2.4% 1.4–2.5% 1.3–2.6% 1.2–2.9%
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.6% 1.3–2.1% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.3% 1.0–2.5%
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.4% 1.1–1.8% 1.0–1.9% 0.9–2.0% 0.8–2.3%
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.5% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.7% 0.6–1.9%
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.9% 0.7–1.2% 0.6–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.6%
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–0.8% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–0.9% 0.2–1.1%
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.0–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 24 23–24 22–24 22–24 22–25
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 19 19–21 19–22 18–22 18–22
Vox (PfE) 0 9 9–10 8–10 8–10 8–10
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0 2 2 2 2 1–3
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1 1 1–2
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0 1 1 1 0–1 0–1
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 8% 99.9%  
23 35% 92%  
24 56% 57% Median
25 0.6% 1.0%  
26 0.3% 0.3%  
27 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 3% 100%  
19 57% 96% Median
20 27% 39%  
21 6% 12%  
22 5% 6%  
23 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 10% 100%  
9 61% 90% Median
10 29% 29%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Podemos (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 23% 100%  
3 77% 77% Median
4 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 1.4% 100%  
2 98% 98.6% Median
3 0.9% 0.9%  
4 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 97% 99.8% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100% Last Result
1 99.3% 99.7% Median
2 0.4% 0.4%  
3 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100% Last Result
1 97% 97% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 68% 100% Last Result, Median
1 32% 32%  
2 0% 0%  

Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 36% 100% Last Result
1 64% 64% Median
2 0% 0%  

Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.4% 1.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 24 0% 23–24 22–24 22–24 22–25
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 19 0% 19–21 19–22 18–22 18–22
Vox (PfE) 0 9 0% 9–10 8–10 8–10 8–10
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 8% 99.9%  
23 35% 92%  
24 56% 57% Median
25 0.6% 1.0%  
26 0.3% 0.3%  
27 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 3% 100%  
19 57% 96% Median
20 27% 39%  
21 6% 12%  
22 5% 6%  
23 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 10% 100%  
9 61% 90% Median
10 29% 29%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations