Opinion Poll by CIS, 2–7 June 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0.0% 34.3% 33.3–35.3% 33.1–35.5% 32.8–35.8% 32.4–36.2%
Partido Popular (EPP) 0.0% 27.3% 26.4–28.2% 26.2–28.5% 25.9–28.7% 25.5–29.2%
Vox (PfE) 0.0% 13.2% 12.5–13.9% 12.3–14.1% 12.2–14.3% 11.9–14.6%
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.3% 3.9–4.8% 3.8–4.9% 3.7–5.0% 3.6–5.2%
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.2% 3.8–4.6% 3.7–4.8% 3.6–4.9% 3.4–5.1%
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.7% 2.4–3.0% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.4%
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) 0.0% 1.5% 1.3–1.8% 1.2–1.9% 1.2–1.9% 1.1–2.1%
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.4% 1.2–1.7% 1.1–1.8% 1.1–1.8% 1.0–2.0%
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.2% 1.0–1.4% 0.9–1.5% 0.9–1.6% 0.8–1.7%
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0.0% 1.1% 0.9–1.3% 0.9–1.4% 0.8–1.5% 0.7–1.6%
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.6% 0.5–0.8% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–0.9% 0.3–1.0%
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) 0.0% 0.6% 0.5–0.8% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–0.9% 0.3–1.0%
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) 0.0% 0.4% 0.3–0.6% 0.3–0.6% 0.2–0.7% 0.2–0.7%
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0.0% 0.1% 0.0–0.2% 0.0–0.2% 0.0–0.3% 0.0–0.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 24 24–25 24–25 23–26 23–26
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 19 18–19 18–20 18–21 18–21
Vox (PfE) 0 9 9 9–10 8–10 8–10
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 2% 100%  
24 63% 97% Median
25 31% 34%  
26 3% 3%  
27 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 34% 100%  
19 59% 66% Median
20 5% 8%  
21 3% 3%  
22 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 4% 100%  
9 90% 96% Median
10 6% 6%  
11 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 44% 100%  
3 56% 56% Median
4 0% 0%  

Podemos (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 35% 100%  
3 65% 65% Median
4 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 14% 100%  
2 86% 86% Median
3 0% 0%  

Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100% Last Result
1 91% 91% Median
2 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 25% 100% Last Result
1 75% 75% Median
2 0% 0%  

Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Last Result, Median
1 9% 9%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 24 0% 24–25 24–25 23–26 23–26
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 19 0% 18–19 18–20 18–21 18–21
Vox (PfE) 0 9 0% 9 9–10 8–10 8–10
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 2% 100%  
24 63% 97% Median
25 31% 34%  
26 3% 3%  
27 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 34% 100%  
19 59% 66% Median
20 5% 8%  
21 3% 3%  
22 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 4% 100%  
9 90% 96% Median
10 6% 6%  
11 0% 0%  

Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations