Opinion Poll by Hamalgama Métrica for Vozpópuli, 14–18 July 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0.0% 35.0% 33.1–37.0% 32.6–37.5% 32.1–38.0% 31.2–39.0%
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0.0% 25.4% 23.7–27.2% 23.2–27.7% 22.8–28.2% 22.0–29.1%
Vox (PfE) 0.0% 15.4% 14.0–16.9% 13.6–17.4% 13.3–17.8% 12.7–18.5%
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 5.3% 4.5–6.3% 4.3–6.6% 4.1–6.9% 3.7–7.4%
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.3%
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) 0.0% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.6–3.1% 1.4–3.3% 1.2–3.7%
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.1%
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.6% 0.8–2.9%
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.3% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1% 0.8–2.2% 0.6–2.5%
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–1.9% 0.7–2.1% 0.5–2.4%
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.2% 0.2–1.4%
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 24 23–25 22–26 22–26 21–28
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 17 16–19 16–19 15–19 15–19
Vox (PfE) 0 10 9–11 9–11 9–12 8–12
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0 4 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 0–2
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.5% 100%  
22 9% 99.5%  
23 15% 91%  
24 40% 76% Median
25 31% 36%  
26 4% 5%  
27 0.3% 1.2%  
28 0.9% 0.9%  
29 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.1% 100%  
15 3% 99.9%  
16 19% 97%  
17 42% 78% Median
18 20% 37%  
19 17% 17%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 1.3% 100%  
9 37% 98.7%  
10 46% 62% Median
11 13% 15%  
12 2% 3%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Podemos (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 12% 100%  
3 20% 88%  
4 67% 68% Median
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 36% 100%  
2 41% 64% Median
3 23% 23%  
4 0% 0%  

Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 90% 98% Median
2 8% 8%  
3 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100% Last Result
1 59% 93% Median
2 34% 34%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 38% 100% Last Result
1 62% 62% Median
2 0.8% 0.8%  
3 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 33% 100% Last Result
1 66% 67% Median
2 0.7% 0.7%  
3 0% 0%  

Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 46% 100% Last Result
1 54% 54% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 81% 100% Last Result, Median
1 19% 19%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.6% 0.6%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 24 0% 23–25 22–26 22–26 21–28
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 17 0% 16–19 16–19 15–19 15–19
Vox (PfE) 0 10 0% 9–11 9–11 9–12 8–12
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.5% 100%  
22 9% 99.5%  
23 15% 91%  
24 40% 76% Median
25 31% 36%  
26 4% 5%  
27 0.3% 1.2%  
28 0.9% 0.9%  
29 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.1% 100%  
15 3% 99.9%  
16 19% 97%  
17 42% 78% Median
18 20% 37%  
19 17% 17%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 1.3% 100%  
9 37% 98.7%  
10 46% 62% Median
11 13% 15%  
12 2% 3%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations