Opinion Poll by CIS, 1–6 September 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0.0% 32.7% 31.8–33.7% 31.5–33.9% 31.3–34.2% 30.8–34.6%
Partido Popular (EPP) 0.0% 23.7% 22.9–24.6% 22.6–24.8% 22.4–25.0% 22.0–25.5%
Vox (PfE) 0.0% 17.3% 16.6–18.1% 16.3–18.3% 16.2–18.5% 15.8–18.9%
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.9% 4.5–5.4% 4.4–5.5% 4.3–5.6% 4.1–5.8%
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.3% 3.9–4.7% 3.8–4.9% 3.7–5.0% 3.5–5.2%
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.0% 2.7–3.4% 2.6–3.5% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.8%
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.1% 1.8–2.4% 1.8–2.5% 1.7–2.6% 1.6–2.8%
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) 0.0% 1.6% 1.4–1.9% 1.3–2.0% 1.2–2.0% 1.2–2.2%
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.1% 0.9–1.3% 0.9–1.4% 0.8–1.5% 0.7–1.6%
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0.0% 0.8% 0.6–1.0% 0.6–1.1% 0.6–1.1% 0.5–1.2%
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.1%
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) 0.0% 0.6% 0.5–0.8% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–1.0%
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0.0% 0.1% 0.0–0.2% 0.0–0.2% 0.0–0.3% 0.0–0.3%
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) 0.0% 0.1% 0.0–0.2% 0.0–0.2% 0.0–0.3% 0.0–0.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 23 22–23 22–24 22–24 22–24
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 17 16–17 16–17 16–17 15–18
Vox (PfE) 0 12 12–13 11–13 11–13 11–13
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0 3 3 3 3 2–4
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 15% 99.9%  
23 75% 85% Median
24 10% 10%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 1.0% 100%  
16 40% 99.0%  
17 57% 59% Median
18 2% 2%  
19 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.1% 100%  
11 10% 99.9%  
12 77% 90% Median
13 14% 14%  
14 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 2% 100%  
3 97% 98% Median
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Podemos (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 20% 100%  
3 80% 80% Median
4 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 50% 100% Median
2 50% 50%  
3 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.6% 100% Median
2 0.4% 0.4%  
3 0% 0%  

Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 98% 98% Median
2 0% 0%  

Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 87% 100% Last Result, Median
1 13% 13%  
2 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 23 0% 22–23 22–24 22–24 22–24
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 17 0% 16–17 16–17 16–17 15–18
Vox (PfE) 0 12 0% 12–13 11–13 11–13 11–13
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 15% 99.9%  
23 75% 85% Median
24 10% 10%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 1.0% 100%  
16 40% 99.0%  
17 57% 59% Median
18 2% 2%  
19 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.1% 100%  
11 10% 99.9%  
12 77% 90% Median
13 14% 14%  
14 0% 0%  

Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations