Opinion Poll by Opina 360 for Telecinco, 31 October–4 November 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0.0% | 28.2% | 26.6–29.9% | 26.1–30.4% | 25.7–30.8% | 25.0–31.7% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0.0% | 28.1% | 26.5–29.8% | 26.0–30.3% | 25.7–30.7% | 24.9–31.6% |
| Vox (PfE) | 0.0% | 19.5% | 18.1–21.0% | 17.7–21.4% | 17.3–21.8% | 16.7–22.6% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 4.2% | 3.6–5.1% | 3.4–5.3% | 3.2–5.5% | 2.9–6.0% |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.1% | 2.5–3.8% | 2.4–4.0% | 2.2–4.2% | 2.0–4.6% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.7% | 2.1–3.4% | 2.0–3.6% | 1.9–3.7% | 1.7–4.1% |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.5–2.5% | 1.4–2.7% | 1.3–2.9% | 1.1–3.2% |
| Junts per Catalunya (NI) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.2–2.1% | 1.1–2.3% | 1.0–2.5% | 0.9–2.8% |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.2–2.1% | 1.1–2.3% | 1.0–2.5% | 0.9–2.8% |
| Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.7–1.7% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.1% |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–2.0% |
| Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.3–1.0% | 0.2–1.1% | 0.2–1.3% |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 19 | 19–21 | 19–21 | 18–21 | 18–22 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 19 | 18–20 | 18–21 | 18–22 | 17–22 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 14 | 13–14 | 13–14 | 12–15 | 11–15 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Junts per Catalunya (NI) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 18 | 4% | 99.5% | |
| 19 | 49% | 96% | Median |
| 20 | 20% | 46% | |
| 21 | 24% | 26% | |
| 22 | 2% | 2% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 18 | 24% | 99.4% | |
| 19 | 60% | 76% | Median |
| 20 | 9% | 16% | |
| 21 | 4% | 8% | |
| 22 | 4% | 4% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 12 | 4% | 99.4% | |
| 13 | 33% | 95% | |
| 14 | 58% | 62% | Median |
| 15 | 4% | 4% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 25% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 73% | 75% | Median |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Podemos (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 54% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 45% | 46% | |
| 3 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 53% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 47% | 47% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 95% | 96% | Median |
| 2 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 87% | 87% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 26% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 74% | 74% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 64% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 36% | 36% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 19 | 0% | 18–20 | 18–21 | 18–22 | 17–22 |
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 19 | 0% | 19–21 | 19–21 | 18–21 | 18–22 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 14 | 0% | 13–14 | 13–14 | 12–15 | 11–15 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 18 | 24% | 99.4% | |
| 19 | 60% | 76% | Median |
| 20 | 9% | 16% | |
| 21 | 4% | 8% | |
| 22 | 4% | 4% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 18 | 4% | 99.5% | |
| 19 | 49% | 96% | Median |
| 20 | 20% | 46% | |
| 21 | 24% | 26% | |
| 22 | 2% | 2% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 12 | 4% | 99.4% | |
| 13 | 33% | 95% | |
| 14 | 58% | 62% | Median |
| 15 | 4% | 4% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Opina 360
- Commissioner(s): Telecinco
- Fieldwork period: 31 October–4 November 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1202
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.62%