Opinion Poll by SocioMétrica for El Español, 6–8 November 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0.0% 33.7% 31.9–35.6% 31.4–36.1% 31.0–36.6% 30.1–37.5%
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0.0% 27.2% 25.5–29.0% 25.0–29.5% 24.6–29.9% 23.8–30.8%
Vox (PfE) 0.0% 16.9% 15.5–18.4% 15.1–18.9% 14.8–19.3% 14.2–20.0%
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.2% 3.1–5.4% 2.8–5.9%
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.6–4.8% 2.3–5.2%
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.9–3.5% 1.8–3.7% 1.5–4.0%
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.8% 1.4–2.5% 1.3–2.6% 1.2–2.8% 1.0–3.1%
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.3% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.0%
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.3% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.6% 0.9–2.9%
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.7% 0.8–1.9% 0.7–2.0% 0.6–2.3%
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.6–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.5% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–1.9%
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–1.0%
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.0–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 23 22–24 21–24 21–24 20–25
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 18 17–18 17–19 17–20 16–20
Vox (PfE) 0 12 11–12 10–12 10–12 10–12
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0 2 2 2–3 2–3 2–3
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2 2 2–3 1–3
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0 1 1 1 0–1 0–1
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.9% 99.9%  
21 5% 99.0%  
22 10% 94%  
23 70% 85% Median
24 15% 15%  
25 0.2% 0.6%  
26 0.3% 0.3%  
27 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.8% 100%  
17 14% 99.2%  
18 75% 85% Median
19 7% 10%  
20 2% 3%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 5% 99.9%  
11 24% 95%  
12 70% 70% Median
13 0.4% 0.4%  
14 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 100%  
2 91% 99.9% Median
3 9% 9%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Podemos (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 1.2% 100%  
2 96% 98.8% Median
3 3% 3%  
4 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 88% 100% Median
2 12% 12%  
3 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 97% 98% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 98% 98% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100% Last Result
1 96% 96% Median
2 0.4% 0.4%  
3 0% 0%  

Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 83% 100% Last Result, Median
1 17% 17%  
2 0% 0%  

Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 8% 8%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 23 0% 22–24 21–24 21–24 20–25
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 18 0% 17–18 17–19 17–20 16–20
Vox (PfE) 0 12 0% 11–12 10–12 10–12 10–12
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.9% 99.9%  
21 5% 99.0%  
22 10% 94%  
23 70% 85% Median
24 15% 15%  
25 0.2% 0.6%  
26 0.3% 0.3%  
27 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.8% 100%  
17 14% 99.2%  
18 75% 85% Median
19 7% 10%  
20 2% 3%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 5% 99.9%  
11 24% 95%  
12 70% 70% Median
13 0.4% 0.4%  
14 0% 0%  

Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations