Opinion Poll by CIS, 3–12 November 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0.0% 32.6% 31.7–33.6% 31.4–33.8% 31.2–34.1% 30.7–34.5%
Partido Popular (EPP) 0.0% 22.4% 21.6–23.3% 21.3–23.5% 21.1–23.7% 20.7–24.1%
Vox (PfE) 0.0% 18.8% 18.0–19.6% 17.8–19.8% 17.6–20.0% 17.2–20.4%
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.4% 4.0–4.8% 3.9–5.0% 3.8–5.1% 3.6–5.3%
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.0% 3.6–4.4% 3.5–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.3–4.9%
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.7% 2.4–3.1% 2.3–3.2% 2.2–3.3% 2.1–3.4%
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.2% 1.9–2.5% 1.9–2.6% 1.8–2.7% 1.7–2.9%
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.2% 1.0–1.4% 0.9–1.5% 0.9–1.6% 0.8–1.7%
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0.0% 1.1% 0.9–1.3% 0.9–1.4% 0.8–1.5% 0.7–1.6%
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.1% 0.9–1.3% 0.9–1.4% 0.8–1.5% 0.7–1.6%
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.1%
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) 0.0% 0.6% 0.5–0.8% 0.4–0.8% 0.4–0.9% 0.3–1.0%
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.3% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.5%
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0.0% 0.1% 0.0–0.2% 0.0–0.2% 0.0–0.3% 0.0–0.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 23 23–24 22–24 22–25 22–25
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 16 16–17 16–17 15–17 15–17
Vox (PfE) 0 14 13–14 12–14 12–14 12–15
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0 3 3 2–3 2–4 2–4
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 6% 99.9%  
23 77% 94% Median
24 13% 17%  
25 4% 4%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.1% 100%  
15 5% 99.9%  
16 76% 95% Median
17 19% 20%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 6% 100%  
13 35% 94%  
14 58% 59% Median
15 1.0% 1.0%  
16 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 8% 100%  
3 89% 92% Median
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  

Podemos (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 60% 100% Median
3 40% 40%  
4 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 43% 100%  
2 57% 57% Median
3 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 90% 100% Median
2 10% 10%  
3 0% 0%  

Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 7% 7%  
2 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 23 0% 23–24 22–24 22–25 22–25
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 16 0% 16–17 16–17 15–17 15–17
Vox (PfE) 0 14 0% 13–14 12–14 12–14 12–15
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 6% 99.9%  
23 77% 94% Median
24 13% 17%  
25 4% 4%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.1% 100%  
15 5% 99.9%  
16 76% 95% Median
17 19% 20%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 6% 100%  
13 35% 94%  
14 58% 59% Median
15 1.0% 1.0%  
16 0% 0%  

Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations