Opinion Poll by SocioMétrica for El Español, 7–10 January 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0.0% 32.5% 30.9–34.2% 30.4–34.7% 30.0–35.1% 29.3–36.0%
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0.0% 25.7% 24.2–27.3% 23.7–27.8% 23.4–28.2% 22.7–28.9%
Vox (PfE) 0.0% 17.9% 16.6–19.4% 16.2–19.8% 15.9–20.1% 15.3–20.8%
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 3.1–5.2% 2.8–5.6%
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.8% 3.2–4.5% 3.0–4.8% 2.9–5.0% 2.6–5.3%
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.5% 2.0–3.1% 1.9–3.3% 1.7–3.5% 1.5–3.8%
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) 0.0% 2.1% 1.6–2.7% 1.5–2.9% 1.4–3.0% 1.2–3.3%
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.1% 1.6–2.7% 1.5–2.9% 1.4–3.0% 1.2–3.3%
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.5% 1.2–2.1% 1.1–2.2% 1.0–2.4% 0.9–2.7%
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0.0% 1.3% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–2.0% 0.8–2.1% 0.7–2.4%
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.7% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.1%
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) 0.0% 0.9% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.6% 0.4–1.9%
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) 0.0% 0.5% 0.4–0.9% 0.3–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.3%
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 22 21–23 21–24 21–24 20–25
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 17 16–19 16–19 16–19 15–20
Vox (PfE) 0 12 11–13 11–13 10–14 10–14
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–4
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–3
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 0–2
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) 0 1 1 1–2 0–2 0–2
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 0–2 0–2
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.9% 99.9%  
21 33% 99.0%  
22 33% 66% Median
23 24% 33%  
24 7% 9%  
25 2% 2%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 2% 100%  
16 19% 98%  
17 32% 78% Median
18 24% 47%  
19 21% 23%  
20 1.5% 2%  
21 0.4% 0.4%  
22 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 4% 100%  
11 29% 96%  
12 31% 67% Median
13 32% 37%  
14 4% 4%  
15 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 2% 100%  
2 42% 98%  
3 55% 56% Median
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Podemos (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 1.0% 100%  
2 89% 99.0% Median
3 10% 10%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.9% 100% Last Result
1 73% 99.1% Median
2 26% 26%  
3 0% 0%  

Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100% Last Result
1 90% 97% Median
2 6% 6%  
3 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100% Last Result
1 92% 97% Median
2 4% 4%  
3 0% 0%  

Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100% Last Result
1 90% 90% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 57% 100% Last Result, Median
1 43% 43%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 6% 6%  
2 0% 0%  

Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.1% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.9% 0.9%  
2 0% 0%  

Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 22 0% 21–23 21–24 21–24 20–25
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 17 0% 16–19 16–19 16–19 15–20
Vox (PfE) 0 12 0% 11–13 11–13 10–14 10–14
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.9% 99.9%  
21 33% 99.0%  
22 33% 66% Median
23 24% 33%  
24 7% 9%  
25 2% 2%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 2% 100%  
16 19% 98%  
17 32% 78% Median
18 24% 47%  
19 21% 23%  
20 1.5% 2%  
21 0.4% 0.4%  
22 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 4% 100%  
11 29% 96%  
12 31% 67% Median
13 32% 37%  
14 4% 4%  
15 0% 0%  

Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations