Opinion Poll by Data10 for Okdiario, 10 February 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0.0% 31.6% 29.8–33.5% 29.2–34.1% 28.8–34.6% 27.9–35.5%
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0.0% 26.0% 24.3–27.8% 23.8–28.4% 23.4–28.8% 22.6–29.7%
Vox (PfE) 0.0% 19.5% 18.0–21.2% 17.5–21.7% 17.2–22.1% 16.4–22.9%
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) 0.0% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.2–3.9% 2.0–4.1% 1.8–4.6%
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.8–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–4.1%
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.6–3.1% 1.4–3.3% 1.2–3.7%
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.3% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1% 0.8–2.2% 0.6–2.5%
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.0% 0.5–2.3%
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) 0.0% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.6% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–2.0%
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.8% 0.5–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.6% 0.3–1.9%
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.2% 0.2–1.4%
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 21 21–22 20–23 20–24 19–25
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 18 17–20 15–20 15–20 15–20
Vox (PfE) 0 14 13–15 12–15 11–15 11–15
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 0–2 0–2
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 0–2
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 0–2 0–2
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.5% 99.9%  
20 6% 99.4%  
21 77% 93% Median
22 9% 16%  
23 1.4% 6%  
24 4% 5%  
25 0.5% 0.5%  
26 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 7% 100%  
16 1.1% 93%  
17 8% 92%  
18 62% 84% Median
19 9% 22%  
20 13% 13%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 5% 100%  
12 4% 95%  
13 35% 91%  
14 10% 56% Median
15 46% 46%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 100%  
2 79% 99.9% Median
3 20% 21%  
4 0.5% 0.5%  
5 0% 0%  

Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 33% 100%  
2 67% 67% Median
3 0.7% 0.7%  
4 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100% Last Result
1 73% 97% Median
2 24% 24%  
3 0% 0%  

Podemos (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100% Last Result
1 94% 99.5% Median
2 5% 5%  
3 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100% Last Result
1 92% 97% Median
2 5% 5%  
3 0% 0%  

Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 76% 100% Last Result, Median
1 24% 24%  
2 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 78% 100% Last Result, Median
1 22% 22%  
2 0% 0%  

Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 6% 6%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 83% 100% Last Result, Median
1 17% 17%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 21 0% 21–22 20–23 20–24 19–25
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 18 0% 17–20 15–20 15–20 15–20
Vox (PfE) 0 14 0% 13–15 12–15 11–15 11–15
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.5% 99.9%  
20 6% 99.4%  
21 77% 93% Median
22 9% 16%  
23 1.4% 6%  
24 4% 5%  
25 0.5% 0.5%  
26 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 7% 100%  
16 1.1% 93%  
17 8% 92%  
18 62% 84% Median
19 9% 22%  
20 13% 13%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 5% 100%  
12 4% 95%  
13 35% 91%  
14 10% 56% Median
15 46% 46%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations