Opinion Poll by Allensbach, 5–19 July 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 25.2% | 23.5–27.1% | 23.0–27.6% | 22.6–28.0% | 21.8–28.9% |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 17.0% | 15.6–18.7% | 15.2–19.1% | 14.8–19.5% | 14.2–20.3% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 16.5% | 15.0–18.0% | 14.6–18.5% | 14.3–18.9% | 13.6–19.7% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 11.5% | 10.3–12.9% | 9.9–13.2% | 9.6–13.6% | 9.1–14.3% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.5% | 6.4–9.8% | 6.0–10.4% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 6.8% | 5.9–7.9% | 5.6–8.2% | 5.4–8.5% | 5.0–9.1% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.6% | 4.3–8.2% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.0–2.0% | 0.9–2.2% | 0.8–2.3% | 0.7–2.7% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.0–2.0% | 0.9–2.2% | 0.8–2.3% | 0.7–2.7% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.8–2.1% | 0.8–2.2% | 0.6–2.5% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.4–1.3% | 0.3–1.4% | 0.2–1.7% |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 23 | 21–26 | 21–26 | 21–26 | 20–28 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 16 | 15–16 | 14–16 | 14–17 | 13–19 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 16 | 14–18 | 14–18 | 14–18 | 13–20 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 12 | 10–13 | 10–15 | 10–15 | 9–15 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 8 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 6–10 | 6–10 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 6–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 21 | 17% | 99.0% | |
| 22 | 21% | 82% | |
| 23 | 20% | 61% | Median |
| 24 | 2% | 41% | |
| 25 | 10% | 39% | |
| 26 | 28% | 29% | |
| 27 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 28 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 14 | 6% | 98.7% | |
| 15 | 32% | 93% | |
| 16 | 56% | 61% | Median |
| 17 | 3% | 5% | |
| 18 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 19 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 18% | 99.0% | |
| 15 | 29% | 81% | |
| 16 | 21% | 53% | Median |
| 17 | 12% | 31% | |
| 18 | 19% | 20% | |
| 19 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 20 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 9 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 10 | 12% | 98% | |
| 11 | 33% | 87% | |
| 12 | 34% | 53% | Median |
| 13 | 14% | 19% | |
| 14 | 0.4% | 6% | |
| 15 | 5% | 5% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 16% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 17% | 84% | |
| 8 | 43% | 67% | Median |
| 9 | 17% | 24% | |
| 10 | 7% | 7% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 5 | 9% | 99.6% | |
| 6 | 23% | 91% | |
| 7 | 58% | 68% | Median |
| 8 | 2% | 10% | |
| 9 | 8% | 8% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 13% | 100% | |
| 5 | 53% | 87% | Median |
| 6 | 26% | 34% | |
| 7 | 6% | 8% | |
| 8 | 1.3% | 1.4% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 38% | 99.6% | |
| 2 | 62% | 62% | Median |
| 3 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 47% | 100% | |
| 2 | 52% | 53% | Median |
| 3 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 62% | 99.9% | Median |
| 2 | 37% | 37% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 84% | 99.5% | Median |
| 2 | 15% | 15% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 33% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 66% | 67% | Median |
| 2 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 58% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 42% | 42% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 74% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 26% | 26% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Partei des Fortschritts (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei des Fortschritts (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 96% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 4% | 4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 96% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 4% | 4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 31 | 0% | 28–34 | 27–34 | 27–34 | 26–34 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 16 | 0% | 14–18 | 14–18 | 14–18 | 13–20 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 16 | 0% | 15–16 | 14–16 | 14–17 | 13–19 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 9 | 0% | 7–10 | 7–11 | 7–11 | 7–11 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 6–8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–9 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 27 | 6% | 99.2% | |
| 28 | 10% | 93% | |
| 29 | 6% | 83% | |
| 30 | 19% | 77% | Median |
| 31 | 19% | 58% | |
| 32 | 14% | 39% | |
| 33 | 1.3% | 25% | |
| 34 | 23% | 24% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 18% | 99.0% | |
| 15 | 29% | 81% | |
| 16 | 21% | 53% | Median |
| 17 | 12% | 31% | |
| 18 | 19% | 20% | |
| 19 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 20 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 14 | 6% | 98.7% | |
| 15 | 32% | 93% | |
| 16 | 56% | 61% | Median |
| 17 | 3% | 5% | |
| 18 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 19 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 16% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 16% | 84% | |
| 9 | 31% | 68% | Median |
| 10 | 28% | 36% | |
| 11 | 8% | 8% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 39% | 98.9% | |
| 7 | 35% | 60% | Median |
| 8 | 19% | 25% | |
| 9 | 6% | 7% | |
| 10 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Allensbach
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 5–19 July 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1003
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 3.84%