Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 26–29 July 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 23.7% | 22.5–24.9% | 22.1–25.3% | 21.9–25.6% | 21.3–26.2% |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 18.0% | 16.9–19.1% | 16.6–19.5% | 16.4–19.8% | 15.9–20.3% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 15.0% | 14.0–16.1% | 13.7–16.4% | 13.5–16.6% | 13.0–17.2% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 10.0% | 9.2–10.9% | 9.0–11.2% | 8.8–11.4% | 8.4–11.9% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 9.5% | 8.7–10.4% | 8.5–10.7% | 8.3–10.9% | 7.9–11.3% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 6.3% | 5.7–7.1% | 5.5–7.3% | 5.3–7.5% | 5.0–7.9% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.4–5.7% | 4.3–5.9% | 4.1–6.0% | 3.9–6.4% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.5% | 3.0–4.1% | 2.9–4.3% | 2.8–4.4% | 2.6–4.7% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.3–2.1% | 1.2–2.2% | 1.2–2.3% | 1.0–2.5% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.3–2.0% | 1.2–2.1% | 1.1–2.3% | 1.0–2.5% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.6% | 0.9–1.7% | 0.8–1.8% | 0.7–2.0% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.7–1.2% | 0.6–1.3% | 0.6–1.4% | 0.5–1.6% |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.3–0.7% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.2–0.9% |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.9% |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.9% |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2–0.5% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 23 | 23 | 22–23 | 22–24 | 21–24 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 17 | 17–18 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 15–19 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 15 | 14–15 | 14–15 | 14–15 | 13–16 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 10 | 10 | 10–11 | 9–11 | 9–11 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 9 | 9–10 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 7–10 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 5 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 1.3% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 5% | 98.6% | |
| 23 | 90% | 94% | Median |
| 24 | 4% | 4% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 16 | 5% | 98.8% | |
| 17 | 59% | 94% | Median |
| 18 | 29% | 34% | |
| 19 | 6% | 6% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 34% | 99.2% | |
| 15 | 64% | 65% | Median |
| 16 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 9 | 5% | 99.8% | |
| 10 | 86% | 95% | Median |
| 11 | 9% | 9% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 5% | 99.0% | |
| 9 | 62% | 94% | Median |
| 10 | 33% | 33% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 67% | 100% | Median |
| 6 | 30% | 33% | |
| 7 | 2% | 3% | |
| 8 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 8% | 100% | |
| 4 | 32% | 92% | |
| 5 | 60% | 61% | Median |
| 6 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 85% | 100% | Median |
| 4 | 14% | 15% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 78% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 22% | 22% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 12% | 100% | |
| 2 | 88% | 88% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.6% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 97% | 97% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 47% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 53% | 53% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 85% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 15% | 15% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Partei des Fortschritts (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei des Fortschritts (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 81% | 81% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 29 | 0% | 28–29 | 28–31 | 28–31 | 27–31 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 17 | 0% | 17–18 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 15–19 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 15 | 0% | 14–15 | 14–15 | 14–15 | 13–16 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 10 | 0% | 10–11 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 8–11 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 9% | 98.8% | |
| 29 | 83% | 90% | Median |
| 30 | 2% | 7% | |
| 31 | 5% | 5% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 16 | 5% | 98.8% | |
| 17 | 59% | 94% | Median |
| 18 | 29% | 34% | |
| 19 | 6% | 6% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 34% | 99.2% | |
| 15 | 64% | 65% | Median |
| 16 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 5% | 99.0% | |
| 10 | 61% | 94% | Median |
| 11 | 33% | 33% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 32% | 100% | |
| 6 | 60% | 68% | Median |
| 7 | 7% | 8% | |
| 8 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: INSA and YouGov
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 26–29 July 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 2006
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.03%