Opinion Poll by Ipsos, 2–4 August 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 23.7% 22.0–25.5% 21.6–26.0% 21.2–26.4% 20.4–27.3%
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 16.0% 14.6–17.6% 14.2–18.0% 13.9–18.4% 13.2–19.2%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 14.0% 12.7–15.5% 12.3–15.9% 12.0–16.3% 11.4–17.0%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 13.0% 11.7–14.5% 11.4–14.9% 11.1–15.2% 10.5–16.0%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.0–10.5%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 6.3% 5.4–7.4% 5.2–7.7% 5.0–8.0% 4.6–8.6%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.1%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.5% 0.7–2.8%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.0% 0.5–2.3%
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.2% 0.2–1.4%
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 0.4% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.1–1.3%
Partei des Fortschritts (*) 0.0% 0.4% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.1–1.3%
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 21 21–25 21–25 20–26 19–26
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 15 14–16 13–16 13–17 12–18
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 12 12–15 12–15 11–16 10–16
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 13 11–13 11–13 10–14 10–15
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 9 7–9 6–9 6–10 5–10
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 6 5–6 5–7 5–7 4–8
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 3–7
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 3 3–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 2–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–3 1–3
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 0–2
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Partei des Fortschritts (*) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.5% 99.9%  
20 3% 99.4%  
21 64% 96% Median
22 5% 33%  
23 9% 28%  
24 2% 19%  
25 12% 17%  
26 5% 5%  
27 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 2% 100%  
13 5% 98%  
14 6% 93%  
15 67% 87% Median
16 17% 20%  
17 2% 4%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 2% 100%  
11 1.5% 98%  
12 70% 96% Median
13 7% 27%  
14 9% 20%  
15 7% 10%  
16 4% 4%  
17 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 3% 99.9%  
11 14% 97%  
12 15% 83%  
13 64% 68% Median
14 3% 4%  
15 0.4% 0.6%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 1.0% 100%  
6 7% 99.0%  
7 8% 92%  
8 18% 84%  
9 63% 65% Median
10 3% 3%  
11 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 1.3% 100%  
5 29% 98.7%  
6 64% 69% Median
7 3% 5%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.5% 100%  
4 11% 99.5%  
5 71% 89% Median
6 16% 17%  
7 1.1% 1.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 9% 100%  
3 71% 91% Median
4 19% 19%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 8% 100%  
2 78% 92% Median
3 14% 14%  
4 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 11% 100%  
2 85% 89% Median
3 4% 4%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 75% 100% Median
2 24% 25%  
3 2% 2%  
4 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.3% 100% Last Result
1 91% 98.7% Median
2 8% 8%  
3 0% 0%  

Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 73% 100% Last Result, Median
1 27% 27%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 18% 100% Last Result
1 82% 82% Median
2 0.6% 0.6%  
3 0% 0%  

Partei des Fortschritts (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei des Fortschritts (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 30% 100% Last Result
1 70% 70% Median
2 0% 0%  

Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Last Result, Median
1 11% 11%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) 0 28 0% 28–31 27–33 27–33 25–33
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 15 0% 14–16 13–16 13–17 12–18
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 12 0% 12–15 12–15 11–16 10–16
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 10 0% 8–10 7–11 7–11 6–12
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 7 0% 7–8 6–8 5–8 5–9

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0.6% 100%  
26 2% 99.4%  
27 4% 98%  
28 62% 94% Median
29 8% 31%  
30 2% 23%  
31 13% 21%  
32 2% 9%  
33 6% 7%  
34 0.4% 0.5%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 2% 100%  
13 5% 98%  
14 6% 93%  
15 67% 87% Median
16 17% 20%  
17 2% 4%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 2% 100%  
11 1.5% 98%  
12 70% 96% Median
13 7% 27%  
14 9% 20%  
15 7% 10%  
16 4% 4%  
17 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.9% 100%  
7 5% 99.1%  
8 5% 94%  
9 7% 88%  
10 75% 81% Median
11 4% 6%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 4% 100%  
6 4% 96%  
7 68% 91% Median
8 23% 24%  
9 1.2% 1.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations