Opinion Poll by Forsa, 6–12 August 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 23.7% | 22.5–24.9% | 22.1–25.3% | 21.8–25.6% | 21.3–26.2% |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 17.0% | 16.0–18.2% | 15.7–18.5% | 15.4–18.7% | 14.9–19.3% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 15.0% | 14.0–16.1% | 13.7–16.4% | 13.5–16.7% | 13.0–17.2% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 11.0% | 10.2–12.0% | 9.9–12.3% | 9.7–12.5% | 9.3–13.0% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 7.0% | 6.3–7.8% | 6.1–8.0% | 6.0–8.2% | 5.6–8.6% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 6.3% | 5.6–7.1% | 5.5–7.3% | 5.3–7.5% | 5.0–7.8% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.4–5.7% | 4.3–5.9% | 4.1–6.1% | 3.9–6.4% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.6–3.6% | 2.5–3.7% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.1–4.2% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.8–2.7% | 1.7–2.8% | 1.6–3.0% | 1.5–3.2% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.8–2.6% | 1.7–2.8% | 1.6–2.9% | 1.4–3.2% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.3–2.1% | 1.2–2.2% | 1.2–2.3% | 1.0–2.5% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.6% | 0.8–1.7% | 0.8–1.8% | 0.7–2.0% |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.4–0.8% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.2–1.1% |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.4–0.8% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.2–1.1% |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3–0.7% | 0.3–0.8% | 0.2–0.9% | 0.2–1.0% |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 21–23 | 20–24 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 17 | 15–17 | 15–18 | 15–18 | 14–18 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 15 | 13–15 | 13–15 | 13–15 | 13–16 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 11 | 11–12 | 10–12 | 10–12 | 9–12 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 3–6 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 1–3 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–3 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 1.2% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 22 | 93% | 97% | Median |
| 23 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 24 | 2% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 19% | 99.4% | |
| 16 | 4% | 81% | |
| 17 | 70% | 76% | Median |
| 18 | 6% | 6% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 13% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 19% | 87% | |
| 15 | 66% | 68% | Median |
| 16 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 17 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 10 | 8% | 99.0% | |
| 11 | 73% | 91% | Median |
| 12 | 19% | 19% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 26% | 99.7% | |
| 7 | 4% | 74% | |
| 8 | 70% | 70% | Median |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 60% | 99.9% | Median |
| 6 | 38% | 40% | |
| 7 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 4 | 61% | 99.1% | Median |
| 5 | 36% | 38% | |
| 6 | 3% | 3% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 66% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 16% | 34% | |
| 4 | 18% | 18% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 1.4% | 100% | |
| 2 | 96% | 98.6% | Median |
| 3 | 3% | 3% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 2 | 98.8% | 99.5% | Median |
| 3 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 20% | 100% | |
| 2 | 79% | 80% | Median |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 29% | 100% | |
| 2 | 71% | 71% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 72% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 28% | 28% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 72% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 28% | 28% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Partei des Fortschritts (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei des Fortschritts (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 32% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 68% | 68% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 87% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 13% | 13% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 27 | 0% | 27–30 | 27–30 | 27–30 | 27–32 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 17 | 0% | 15–17 | 15–18 | 15–18 | 14–18 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 15 | 0% | 13–15 | 13–15 | 13–15 | 13–16 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 10 | 0% | 8–10 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–10 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 59% | 100% | Median |
| 28 | 12% | 41% | |
| 29 | 3% | 29% | |
| 30 | 25% | 26% | |
| 31 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 33 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 19% | 99.4% | |
| 16 | 4% | 81% | |
| 17 | 70% | 76% | Median |
| 18 | 6% | 6% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 13% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 19% | 87% | |
| 15 | 66% | 68% | Median |
| 16 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 17 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 7% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 21% | 92% | |
| 9 | 13% | 72% | |
| 10 | 59% | 59% | Median |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 61% | 99.8% | Median |
| 7 | 36% | 39% | |
| 8 | 3% | 3% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Forsa
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 6–12 August 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1952
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.09%