Opinion Poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, 12–14 August 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 25.3% 23.7–27.0% 23.2–27.5% 22.8–27.9% 22.1–28.7%
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 16.0% 14.7–17.5% 14.3–17.9% 14.0–18.3% 13.4–19.0%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 14.0% 12.8–15.4% 12.4–15.8% 12.1–16.2% 11.6–16.9%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 13.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.4–14.7% 11.2–15.1% 10.6–15.7%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 8.0% 7.1–9.1% 6.8–9.5% 6.6–9.7% 6.2–10.3%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 6.7% 5.9–7.8% 5.6–8.1% 5.4–8.3% 5.0–8.8%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.9% 3.2–5.1% 3.0–5.3% 2.7–5.7%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.1% 1.9–4.5%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.8% 1.4–2.5% 1.3–2.6% 1.2–2.8% 1.0–3.1%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 1.0–3.0%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 1.3% 1.0–1.9% 0.9–2.0% 0.8–2.1% 0.7–2.5%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–2.0%
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) 0.0% 0.4% 0.3–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.1–1.2%
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.7% 0.2–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–1.1%
Partei des Fortschritts (*) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.7% 0.2–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–1.1%
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.3% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.0–1.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 25 22–25 22–25 22–26 21–28
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 13 13–17 13–18 13–18 13–18
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 14 12–14 12–15 12–16 11–17
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 13 11–13 11–13 10–14 9–15
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 7 7–10 7–10 7–10 6–10
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 7 6–8 5–8 5–8 5–8
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–6
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 3 3 2–3 2–4 2–4
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partei des Fortschritts (*) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 100%  
21 2% 99.9%  
22 11% 98%  
23 14% 87%  
24 21% 73%  
25 49% 51% Median
26 2% 3%  
27 0.1% 0.8%  
28 0.4% 0.7%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.1% 100%  
13 56% 99.9% Median
14 10% 44%  
15 14% 33%  
16 3% 19%  
17 10% 16%  
18 5% 5%  
19 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.2% 100%  
11 0.5% 99.8%  
12 16% 99.2%  
13 33% 83%  
14 45% 51% Median
15 2% 6%  
16 4% 4%  
17 0.6% 0.6%  
18 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 2% 100%  
10 2% 98%  
11 9% 96%  
12 36% 87%  
13 48% 51% Median
14 1.4% 4%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 1.1% 99.9%  
7 52% 98.9% Median
8 26% 47%  
9 2% 21%  
10 19% 19%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 6% 100%  
6 35% 94%  
7 12% 60% Median
8 48% 48%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.4% 100%  
3 16% 99.6%  
4 70% 84% Median
5 13% 13%  
6 0.7% 0.7%  
7 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 100%  
2 9% 99.9%  
3 86% 91% Median
4 5% 5%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 17% 100%  
2 81% 83% Median
3 2% 2%  
4 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 13% 100%  
2 68% 87% Median
3 19% 19%  
4 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 81% 100% Median
2 18% 19%  
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100% Last Result
1 90% 92% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100% Last Result
1 93% 93% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 61% 100% Last Result, Median
1 39% 39%  
2 0% 0%  

Partei des Fortschritts (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei des Fortschritts (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 87% 100% Last Result, Median
1 13% 13%  
2 0% 0%  

Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 6% 6%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) 0 32 0% 30–34 30–34 29–34 26–35
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 13 0% 13–17 13–18 13–18 13–18
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 14 0% 12–14 12–15 12–16 11–17
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 8 0% 8–11 8–11 8–11 7–11
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 6 0% 5–6 4–7 4–7 4–8

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.6% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.4%  
28 1.1% 99.1%  
29 1.1% 98%  
30 14% 97%  
31 4% 83%  
32 29% 79%  
33 10% 50% Median
34 37% 40%  
35 2% 2%  
36 0.3% 0.3%  
37 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.1% 100%  
13 56% 99.9% Median
14 10% 44%  
15 14% 33%  
16 3% 19%  
17 10% 16%  
18 5% 5%  
19 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.2% 100%  
11 0.5% 99.8%  
12 16% 99.2%  
13 33% 83%  
14 45% 51% Median
15 2% 6%  
16 4% 4%  
17 0.6% 0.6%  
18 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.1% 100%  
7 0.9% 99.9%  
8 49% 99.1% Median
9 13% 50%  
10 17% 36%  
11 19% 19%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.3% 100%  
4 9% 99.7%  
5 8% 91%  
6 75% 83% Median
7 7% 8%  
8 0.8% 0.9%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations