Opinion Poll by Allensbach, 3–15 August 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 26.8% | 25.1–28.6% | 24.6–29.2% | 24.2–29.6% | 23.4–30.5% |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 16.0% | 14.6–17.5% | 14.2–18.0% | 13.9–18.3% | 13.3–19.1% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 16.0% | 14.6–17.5% | 14.2–18.0% | 13.9–18.3% | 13.3–19.1% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 11.5% | 10.3–12.9% | 10.0–13.3% | 9.7–13.6% | 9.2–14.3% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 7.1% | 6.2–8.3% | 5.9–8.6% | 5.7–8.9% | 5.3–9.4% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 7.0% | 6.1–8.2% | 5.9–8.5% | 5.6–8.8% | 5.2–9.3% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.3–6.0% | 4.1–6.3% | 3.9–6.5% | 3.5–7.0% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.8% | 2.3–4.1% | 2.2–4.3% | 1.9–4.7% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 1.0–1.9% | 0.9–2.1% | 0.8–2.2% | 0.7–2.5% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 1.0–1.9% | 0.9–2.1% | 0.8–2.2% | 0.7–2.5% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.0% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.4% | 0.2–1.6% |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–1.1% |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–1.1% |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–1.1% |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.0–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 26 | 24–26 | 23–27 | 23–28 | 23–29 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 15 | 14–15 | 14–17 | 13–17 | 13–18 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 14 | 12–16 | 12–16 | 12–17 | 12–18 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 11 | 10–12 | 9–13 | 9–14 | 9–14 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 5–9 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 6 | 6–9 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 4–9 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 5 | 4–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–2 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 23 | 7% | 99.6% | |
| 24 | 15% | 92% | |
| 25 | 8% | 77% | |
| 26 | 61% | 70% | Median |
| 27 | 5% | 8% | |
| 28 | 2% | 3% | |
| 29 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 2% | 100% | |
| 14 | 29% | 97% | |
| 15 | 59% | 68% | Median |
| 16 | 4% | 9% | |
| 17 | 4% | 5% | |
| 18 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 10% | 100% | |
| 13 | 4% | 90% | |
| 14 | 52% | 86% | Median |
| 15 | 9% | 34% | |
| 16 | 21% | 25% | |
| 17 | 3% | 4% | |
| 18 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 19 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 9 | 5% | 99.7% | |
| 10 | 19% | 95% | |
| 11 | 50% | 76% | Median |
| 12 | 18% | 26% | |
| 13 | 4% | 8% | |
| 14 | 5% | 5% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 20% | 98% | |
| 7 | 74% | 78% | Median |
| 8 | 3% | 4% | |
| 9 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 5% | 98.9% | |
| 6 | 68% | 94% | Median |
| 7 | 12% | 26% | |
| 8 | 4% | 14% | |
| 9 | 11% | 11% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 5% | 100% | |
| 4 | 8% | 95% | |
| 5 | 70% | 87% | Median |
| 6 | 17% | 17% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 54% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 28% | 46% | |
| 4 | 18% | 18% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 18% | 100% | |
| 2 | 81% | 82% | Median |
| 3 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 38% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 61% | 62% | Median |
| 3 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 97% | 99.5% | Median |
| 2 | 2% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 92% | 92% | Median |
| 2 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 69% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 31% | 31% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 79% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 21% | 21% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Partei des Fortschritts (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei des Fortschritts (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 77% | 78% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 48% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 52% | 52% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 33 | 0% | 32–34 | 31–35 | 29–35 | 29–36 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 15 | 0% | 14–15 | 14–17 | 13–17 | 13–18 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 14 | 0% | 12–16 | 12–16 | 12–17 | 12–18 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 7–10 | 6–10 | 6–10 | 5–10 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 6–7 | 5–7 | 4–8 | 4–8 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 3% | 100% | |
| 30 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 31 | 2% | 96% | |
| 32 | 24% | 94% | |
| 33 | 50% | 69% | Median |
| 34 | 13% | 19% | |
| 35 | 4% | 6% | |
| 36 | 2% | 2% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 2% | 100% | |
| 14 | 29% | 97% | |
| 15 | 59% | 68% | Median |
| 16 | 4% | 9% | |
| 17 | 4% | 5% | |
| 18 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 10% | 100% | |
| 13 | 4% | 90% | |
| 14 | 52% | 86% | Median |
| 15 | 9% | 34% | |
| 16 | 21% | 25% | |
| 17 | 3% | 4% | |
| 18 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 19 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 4% | 98.8% | |
| 7 | 69% | 95% | Median |
| 8 | 11% | 26% | |
| 9 | 5% | 15% | |
| 10 | 11% | 11% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 4% | 100% | |
| 5 | 6% | 96% | |
| 6 | 17% | 90% | |
| 7 | 70% | 73% | Median |
| 8 | 3% | 3% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Allensbach
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 3–15 August 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1051
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.48%