Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 19–23 August 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 24.5% 22.9–26.1% 22.5–26.6% 22.1–27.0% 21.4–27.8%
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 18.0% 16.6–19.5% 16.2–19.9% 15.9–20.3% 15.3–21.0%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 16.0% 14.7–17.4% 14.3–17.8% 14.0–18.2% 13.4–18.9%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 11.0% 9.9–12.2% 9.6–12.6% 9.3–12.9% 8.8–13.5%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 9.0% 8.0–10.1% 7.7–10.5% 7.5–10.7% 7.0–11.3%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 6.5% 5.7–7.5% 5.4–7.8% 5.2–8.0% 4.8–8.5%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 5.0% 4.3–5.9% 4.1–6.2% 3.9–6.4% 3.6–6.8%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 1.9–4.5%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.3% 1.0–1.9% 0.9–2.0% 0.8–2.2% 0.7–2.4%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–1.9% 0.8–2.1% 0.6–2.3%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.6% 0.4–1.9%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.3–1.5%
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%
Partei des Fortschritts (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.5% 0.0–0.6% 0.0–0.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 24 21–26 21–26 21–26 20–27
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 16 15–19 15–19 14–19 13–20
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 15 13–16 13–16 13–17 12–18
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 12 10–12 9–12 9–12 9–13
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 8 8–10 7–10 7–11 7–11
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 4–8
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 5 4–5 4–6 3–6 3–7
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 0–2
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1 0–1 0–1
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partei des Fortschritts (*) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.3% 100%  
19 0% 99.7%  
20 0.7% 99.6%  
21 10% 99.0%  
22 26% 89%  
23 7% 63%  
24 10% 57% Median
25 15% 47%  
26 31% 32%  
27 1.2% 1.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 1.1% 100%  
14 2% 98.9%  
15 32% 97%  
16 22% 64% Median
17 29% 42%  
18 3% 13%  
19 9% 11%  
20 1.0% 1.0%  
21 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.6% 100%  
13 22% 99.4%  
14 10% 77%  
15 56% 67% Median
16 8% 11%  
17 3% 3%  
18 0.4% 0.6%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.4% 100%  
9 8% 99.6%  
10 18% 92%  
11 18% 74%  
12 55% 56% Median
13 1.1% 1.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.1% 100%  
7 9% 99.9%  
8 43% 91% Median
9 21% 48%  
10 25% 27%  
11 3% 3%  
12 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 2% 100%  
5 17% 98%  
6 53% 81% Median
7 27% 29%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 3% 100%  
4 28% 97%  
5 59% 69% Median
6 9% 10%  
7 0.7% 0.7%  
8 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 39% 100%  
3 47% 61% Median
4 14% 14%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100% Last Result
1 43% 99.6%  
2 55% 57% Median
3 2% 2%  
4 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 84% 100% Median
2 16% 16%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.3% 100% Last Result
1 71% 98.7% Median
2 27% 27%  
3 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100% Last Result
1 96% 96% Median
2 0.4% 0.4%  
3 0% 0%  

Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 67% 100% Last Result, Median
1 33% 33%  
2 0% 0%  

Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 64% 100% Last Result, Median
1 36% 36%  
2 0% 0%  

Partei des Fortschritts (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei des Fortschritts (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 83% 100% Last Result, Median
1 17% 17%  
2 0% 0%  

Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 8% 8%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) 0 31 0% 28–34 27–34 27–34 25–34
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 16 0% 15–19 15–19 14–19 13–20
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 15 0% 13–16 13–16 13–17 12–18
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 10 0% 9–12 8–12 8–12 8–12
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 7 0% 5–7 5–7 5–8 4–8

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 100%  
25 1.1% 99.9%  
26 1.0% 98.8%  
27 5% 98%  
28 7% 93%  
29 22% 86%  
30 10% 64% Median
31 8% 54%  
32 33% 46%  
33 0.3% 13%  
34 12% 13%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 1.1% 100%  
14 2% 98.9%  
15 32% 97%  
16 22% 64% Median
17 29% 42%  
18 3% 13%  
19 9% 11%  
20 1.0% 1.0%  
21 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.6% 100%  
13 22% 99.4%  
14 10% 77%  
15 56% 67% Median
16 8% 11%  
17 3% 3%  
18 0.4% 0.6%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 10% 100%  
9 34% 90% Median
10 28% 56%  
11 6% 28%  
12 21% 21%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 2% 100%  
5 25% 98%  
6 12% 73%  
7 58% 61% Median
8 3% 3%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations