Opinion Poll by Verian, 3 September 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 24.5% 23.0–26.0% 22.6–26.4% 22.3–26.8% 21.6–27.5%
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 17.0% 15.8–18.4% 15.5–18.7% 15.2–19.1% 14.6–19.7%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 15.0% 13.8–16.3% 13.5–16.6% 13.2–16.9% 12.7–17.6%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 12.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.6–13.5% 10.4–13.8% 9.9–14.4%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 8.0% 7.1–9.0% 6.9–9.3% 6.7–9.5% 6.3–10.0%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 6.5% 5.7–7.4% 5.5–7.7% 5.3–7.9% 5.0–8.4%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.7% 3.2–5.0% 3.1–5.2% 2.8–5.5%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.4–3.9% 2.2–4.0% 2.0–4.4%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.8% 1.4–2.4% 1.3–2.5% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–3.0%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.8% 1.4–2.3% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.6% 1.0–2.9%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 1.3% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–2.0% 0.9–2.1% 0.7–2.3%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.9%
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) 0.0% 0.4% 0.3–0.7% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.1–1.1%
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 0.4% 0.3–0.7% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.1–1.1%
Partei des Fortschritts (*) 0.0% 0.4% 0.2–0.7% 0.2–0.7% 0.2–0.8% 0.1–1.0%
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.6% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 23 22–25 21–25 21–25 21–25
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 16 15–17 15–18 15–18 14–18
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 14 12–15 12–16 12–16 12–16
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 11 11–13 10–13 10–13 10–14
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 8 7–8 7–8 7–8 6–10
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 7 6–7 6–7 6–7 5–8
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 4 4–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partei des Fortschritts (*) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.1% 99.9%  
21 8% 99.8%  
22 35% 91%  
23 26% 56% Median
24 10% 31%  
25 20% 20%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 2% 99.9%  
15 8% 98%  
16 54% 90% Median
17 27% 35%  
18 8% 8%  
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 16% 100%  
13 30% 84%  
14 37% 54% Median
15 8% 17%  
16 9% 9%  
17 0.2% 0.3%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 8% 99.9%  
11 43% 91% Median
12 26% 48%  
13 21% 22%  
14 0.8% 0.8%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 1.0% 100%  
7 35% 99.0%  
8 63% 64% Median
9 0.9% 2%  
10 0.8% 0.8%  
11 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 2% 100%  
6 36% 98%  
7 59% 62% Median
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 9% 100%  
4 70% 91% Median
5 21% 21%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 11% 100%  
3 54% 89% Median
4 35% 35%  
5 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 19% 100%  
2 50% 81% Median
3 31% 31%  
4 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 11% 100%  
2 87% 89% Median
3 2% 2%  
4 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 92% 100% Median
2 8% 8%  
3 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 73% 99.9% Median
2 26% 26%  
3 0% 0%  

Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 63% 100% Last Result, Median
1 37% 37%  
2 0% 0%  

Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 69% 100% Last Result, Median
1 31% 31%  
2 0% 0%  

Partei des Fortschritts (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei des Fortschritts (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Last Result, Median
1 9% 9%  
2 0% 0%  

Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 83% 100% Last Result, Median
1 17% 17%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) 0 30 0% 28–31 28–32 27–32 27–33
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 16 0% 15–17 15–18 15–18 14–18
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 14 0% 12–15 12–16 12–16 12–16
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 9 0% 8–9 8–9 8–10 7–12
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 6 0% 5–7 5–7 5–8 4–8

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.2% 100%  
27 3% 99.8%  
28 8% 97%  
29 4% 89%  
30 35% 84% Median
31 42% 49%  
32 6% 7%  
33 1.0% 1.1%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 2% 99.9%  
15 8% 98%  
16 54% 90% Median
17 27% 35%  
18 8% 8%  
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 16% 100%  
13 30% 84%  
14 37% 54% Median
15 8% 17%  
16 9% 9%  
17 0.2% 0.3%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.7% 100%  
8 31% 99.3%  
9 64% 68% Median
10 3% 4%  
11 0.4% 1.1%  
12 0.7% 0.7%  
13 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 1.3% 100%  
5 11% 98.7%  
6 55% 88% Median
7 29% 33%  
8 4% 4%  
9 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations