Opinion Poll by Ipsos, 6–7 September 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 25.3% 23.6–27.1% 23.1–27.6% 22.7–28.1% 21.9–29.0%
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 18.0% 16.5–19.6% 16.1–20.1% 15.7–20.5% 15.0–21.3%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 13.0% 11.7–14.5% 11.4–14.9% 11.1–15.2% 10.5–16.0%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 11.0% 9.8–12.4% 9.5–12.8% 9.2–13.1% 8.7–13.8%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 6.7% 5.8–7.8% 5.5–8.2% 5.3–8.4% 4.9–9.0%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.1%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 1.3% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1% 0.8–2.2% 0.6–2.5%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.6% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–2.0%
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) 0.0% 0.4% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.1–1.3%
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 0.4% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.1–1.3%
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–1.1%
Partei des Fortschritts (*) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 25 22–25 22–26 22–26 21–27
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 16 15–19 15–20 14–20 14–21
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 11 11–15 11–15 10–15 9–16
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 11 9–11 9–12 8–13 8–13
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 9 8–9 8–10 7–10 6–11
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 7 5–7 5–8 5–8 4–8
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 4 3–4 3–5 3–5 3–6
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 3 3–4 2–4 2–5 2–5
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 0–2 0–2 0–2
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partei des Fortschritts (*) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.2% 100%  
21 2% 99.8%  
22 12% 98%  
23 13% 86%  
24 21% 73%  
25 46% 52% Median
26 4% 6%  
27 0.8% 1.3%  
28 0.5% 0.5%  
29 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 4% 100%  
15 39% 96%  
16 15% 57% Median
17 15% 42%  
18 8% 27%  
19 10% 19%  
20 8% 9%  
21 0.8% 0.8%  
22 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 1.1% 100%  
10 3% 98.9%  
11 50% 96% Median
12 14% 46%  
13 9% 33%  
14 8% 23%  
15 15% 16%  
16 0.6% 0.6%  
17 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.1% 100%  
8 4% 99.9%  
9 23% 96%  
10 22% 73%  
11 45% 51% Median
12 1.4% 6%  
13 4% 4%  
14 0.1% 0.2%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 2% 100%  
7 3% 98%  
8 27% 95%  
9 63% 68% Median
10 4% 5%  
11 1.4% 1.4%  
12 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 2% 100%  
5 22% 98%  
6 21% 76%  
7 49% 55% Median
8 6% 6%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.2% 100%  
3 20% 99.8%  
4 73% 80% Median
5 6% 7%  
6 1.2% 1.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 9% 100%  
3 72% 91% Median
4 16% 19%  
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 32% 100%  
2 66% 68% Median
3 2% 2%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 54% 100% Median
2 28% 46%  
3 17% 18%  
4 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 37% 100%  
2 63% 63% Median
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100% Last Result
1 89% 95% Median
2 6% 6%  
3 0% 0%  

Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 64% 100% Last Result, Median
1 36% 36%  
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 22% 100% Last Result
1 78% 78% Median
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 48% 100% Last Result
1 52% 52% Median
2 0% 0%  

Partei des Fortschritts (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei des Fortschritts (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 74% 100% Last Result, Median
1 26% 26%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) 0 32 0% 29–33 28–34 28–34 28–35
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 16 0% 15–19 15–20 14–20 14–21
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 11 0% 11–15 11–15 10–15 9–16
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 11 0% 9–11 9–11 8–11 7–13
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 6 0% 5–6 5–7 4–7 4–9

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 9% 99.7%  
29 2% 91%  
30 11% 89%  
31 25% 78%  
32 4% 53%  
33 43% 49% Median
34 6% 6%  
35 0.5% 0.7%  
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 4% 100%  
15 39% 96%  
16 15% 57% Median
17 15% 42%  
18 8% 27%  
19 10% 19%  
20 8% 9%  
21 0.8% 0.8%  
22 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 1.1% 100%  
10 3% 98.9%  
11 50% 96% Median
12 14% 46%  
13 9% 33%  
14 8% 23%  
15 15% 16%  
16 0.6% 0.6%  
17 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 1.1% 100%  
8 2% 98.9%  
9 14% 97%  
10 32% 83%  
11 49% 51% Median
12 0.8% 2%  
13 0.9% 0.9%  
14 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 3% 100%  
5 45% 97%  
6 44% 52% Median
7 6% 8%  
8 0.8% 2%  
9 0.8% 0.8%  
10 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations