Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 9–13 September 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 26.0% | 24.5–27.7% | 24.0–28.2% | 23.6–28.6% | 22.9–29.4% |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 19.0% | 17.6–20.5% | 17.2–20.9% | 16.9–21.3% | 16.2–22.1% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 14.0% | 12.8–15.4% | 12.5–15.8% | 12.2–16.1% | 11.6–16.8% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 10.0% | 9.0–11.2% | 8.7–11.6% | 8.5–11.9% | 8.0–12.5% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 10.0% | 9.0–11.2% | 8.7–11.6% | 8.5–11.9% | 8.0–12.5% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 7.0% | 6.1–8.0% | 5.9–8.3% | 5.7–8.6% | 5.3–9.1% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.8% | 3.2–5.0% | 3.0–5.2% | 2.7–5.7% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.7% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.2–4.1% | 1.9–4.5% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.8–1.9% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.6–2.3% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.8–1.9% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.6–2.3% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.6–1.4% | 0.6–1.5% | 0.5–1.6% | 0.4–1.9% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.3–1.5% |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.0–0.6% | 0.0–0.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24–27 | 23–27 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 18 | 18–19 | 18–20 | 17–20 | 16–20 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 16 | 12–16 | 12–16 | 12–16 | 11–16 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 9 | 9 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–11 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 10 | 10 | 9–10 | 9–10 | 8–10 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–8 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2–4 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 94% | 98% | Median |
| 25 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 26 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 27 | 3% | 3% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 18 | 85% | 96% | Median |
| 19 | 3% | 11% | |
| 20 | 8% | 8% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 9% | 98% | |
| 13 | 2% | 90% | |
| 14 | 4% | 87% | |
| 15 | 0.3% | 84% | |
| 16 | 83% | 83% | Median |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 7% | 100% | |
| 8 | 2% | 93% | |
| 9 | 86% | 91% | Median |
| 10 | 3% | 5% | |
| 11 | 2% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 6% | 99.2% | |
| 10 | 93% | 94% | Median |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 12 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 87% | 99.7% | Median |
| 7 | 11% | 13% | |
| 8 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 85% | 99.9% | Median |
| 4 | 12% | 15% | |
| 5 | 3% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 97% | 98% | Median |
| 4 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 89% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 11% | 11% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 7% | 100% | |
| 2 | 93% | 93% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 97% | 99.9% | Median |
| 2 | 3% | 3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 95% | 95% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Partei des Fortschritts (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei des Fortschritts (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 95% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 5% | 5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 30 | 0% | 30–31 | 30–32 | 30–34 | 30–35 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 18 | 0% | 18–19 | 18–20 | 17–20 | 16–20 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 16 | 0% | 12–16 | 12–16 | 12–16 | 11–16 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 10 | 0% | 10 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–12 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 30 | 85% | 99.7% | Median |
| 31 | 9% | 15% | |
| 32 | 2% | 6% | |
| 33 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 34 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 35 | 2% | 2% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 18 | 85% | 96% | Median |
| 19 | 3% | 11% | |
| 20 | 8% | 8% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 9% | 98% | |
| 13 | 2% | 90% | |
| 14 | 4% | 87% | |
| 15 | 0.3% | 84% | |
| 16 | 83% | 83% | Median |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 7% | 100% | |
| 9 | 2% | 93% | |
| 10 | 84% | 91% | Median |
| 11 | 5% | 8% | |
| 12 | 2% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 1.5% | 100% | |
| 5 | 87% | 98% | Median |
| 6 | 11% | 11% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: INSA and YouGov
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 9–13 September 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1206
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 3.57%