Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 13–16 September 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 26.0% | 24.8–27.3% | 24.4–27.6% | 24.1–28.0% | 23.5–28.6% |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 19.5% | 18.4–20.7% | 18.1–21.0% | 17.8–21.3% | 17.3–21.9% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 14.0% | 13.0–15.0% | 12.8–15.3% | 12.5–15.6% | 12.1–16.1% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 10.0% | 9.2–10.9% | 9.0–11.2% | 8.8–11.4% | 8.4–11.9% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 10.0% | 9.2–10.9% | 9.0–11.2% | 8.8–11.4% | 8.4–11.9% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 7.0% | 6.3–7.8% | 6.1–8.0% | 6.0–8.2% | 5.7–8.6% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 4.5% | 3.9–5.1% | 3.8–5.3% | 3.7–5.5% | 3.4–5.8% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.1–3.0% | 2.0–3.1% | 1.9–3.3% | 1.7–3.5% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.6% | 0.9–1.7% | 0.8–1.8% | 0.7–2.0% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.9–1.5% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.8–1.7% | 0.7–1.9% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.6–1.2% | 0.6–1.3% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.4–1.5% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.5–0.9% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.3–1.3% |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2–0.5% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2–0.5% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2–0.5% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.0–0.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 23 | 23–26 | 23–26 | 23–26 | 22–27 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 18 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 17–21 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 14 | 11–15 | 11–15 | 11–15 | 11–15 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 10 | 9–10 | 9–10 | 9–10 | 8–11 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 9 | 9–10 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–11 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–6 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 23 | 66% | 99.5% | Median |
| 24 | 2% | 33% | |
| 25 | 20% | 31% | |
| 26 | 11% | 11% | |
| 27 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 17 | 11% | 99.8% | |
| 18 | 57% | 89% | Median |
| 19 | 13% | 32% | |
| 20 | 18% | 19% | |
| 21 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 10% | 100% | |
| 12 | 2% | 90% | |
| 13 | 10% | 88% | |
| 14 | 62% | 78% | Median |
| 15 | 16% | 17% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 9 | 18% | 99.1% | |
| 10 | 80% | 81% | Median |
| 11 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 5% | 100% | |
| 9 | 53% | 95% | Median |
| 10 | 41% | 42% | |
| 11 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 12 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 6 | 31% | 99.3% | |
| 7 | 12% | 69% | |
| 8 | 57% | 57% | Median |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 4 | 29% | 99.2% | |
| 5 | 69% | 70% | Median |
| 6 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 88% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 10% | 12% | |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 83% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 17% | 17% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 88% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 12% | 12% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.8% | 99.9% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 92% | 92% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 86% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 14% | 14% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Partei des Fortschritts (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei des Fortschritts (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 87% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 13% | 13% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 31 | 0% | 30–32 | 29–33 | 29–33 | 29–34 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 18 | 0% | 17–20 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 17–21 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 14 | 0% | 11–15 | 11–15 | 11–15 | 11–15 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 11 | 0% | 10–11 | 10–11 | 10–11 | 9–12 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–7 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 7% | 100% | |
| 30 | 9% | 93% | |
| 31 | 53% | 84% | Median |
| 32 | 23% | 31% | |
| 33 | 7% | 8% | |
| 34 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 17 | 11% | 99.8% | |
| 18 | 57% | 89% | Median |
| 19 | 13% | 32% | |
| 20 | 18% | 19% | |
| 21 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 10% | 100% | |
| 12 | 2% | 90% | |
| 13 | 10% | 88% | |
| 14 | 62% | 78% | Median |
| 15 | 16% | 17% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 10 | 18% | 99.1% | |
| 11 | 80% | 81% | Median |
| 12 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 5 | 18% | 99.2% | |
| 6 | 75% | 81% | Median |
| 7 | 6% | 6% | |
| 8 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: INSA and YouGov
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 13–16 September 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 2008
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.98%