Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 20–23 September 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 25.5% | 24.3–26.8% | 24.0–27.2% | 23.7–27.5% | 23.1–28.1% |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 20.0% | 18.9–21.2% | 18.5–21.5% | 18.3–21.8% | 17.8–22.4% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 15.5% | 14.5–16.6% | 14.2–16.9% | 14.0–17.1% | 13.5–17.7% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 10.0% | 9.2–10.9% | 8.9–11.2% | 8.7–11.4% | 8.4–11.8% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 9.5% | 8.7–10.4% | 8.5–10.6% | 8.3–10.9% | 7.9–11.3% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 6.5% | 5.8–7.3% | 5.6–7.5% | 5.5–7.7% | 5.2–8.0% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 3.5% | 3.0–4.1% | 2.9–4.3% | 2.8–4.4% | 2.6–4.7% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.1–3.0% | 2.0–3.2% | 1.9–3.3% | 1.7–3.6% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 1.0–1.7% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.8–2.1% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 1.0–1.6% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.8–1.8% | 0.7–2.0% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.7–1.3% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.6–1.5% | 0.5–1.7% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.0% | 0.5–1.1% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.5% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.5% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2–0.5% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.0–0.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 25 | 24–26 | 23–26 | 23–26 | 21–27 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 18 | 18–20 | 18–20 | 18–21 | 17–22 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 15 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 13–17 | 13–17 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 10 | 9–10 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 7–11 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 9 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–10 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 22 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 23 | 5% | 98% | |
| 24 | 16% | 93% | |
| 25 | 27% | 77% | Median |
| 26 | 48% | 50% | |
| 27 | 2% | 2% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 18 | 50% | 99.0% | Median |
| 19 | 30% | 49% | |
| 20 | 14% | 19% | |
| 21 | 4% | 5% | |
| 22 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 14% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 30% | 86% | |
| 15 | 31% | 56% | Median |
| 16 | 23% | 26% | |
| 17 | 3% | 3% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 5% | 98.9% | |
| 9 | 39% | 94% | |
| 10 | 53% | 55% | Median |
| 11 | 2% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 8 | 46% | 99.7% | |
| 9 | 25% | 53% | Median |
| 10 | 28% | 29% | |
| 11 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 23% | 100% | |
| 6 | 25% | 77% | |
| 7 | 49% | 52% | Median |
| 8 | 3% | 3% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 80% | 100% | Median |
| 4 | 20% | 20% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 40% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 60% | 60% | Median |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 75% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 25% | 25% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 68% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 32% | 32% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.7% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 91% | 99.3% | Median |
| 2 | 8% | 8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 80% | 80% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 53% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 47% | 47% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 96% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 4% | 4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Partei des Fortschritts (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei des Fortschritts (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 93% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 7% | 7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 33 | 0% | 31–33 | 30–33 | 30–33 | 28–34 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 18 | 0% | 18–20 | 18–20 | 18–21 | 17–22 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 15 | 0% | 13–16 | 13–16 | 13–17 | 13–17 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 11 | 0% | 10–11 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 8–12 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 1.4% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.6% | 98.6% | |
| 30 | 7% | 98% | |
| 31 | 35% | 91% | |
| 32 | 2% | 57% | Median |
| 33 | 52% | 55% | |
| 34 | 2% | 2% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 18 | 50% | 99.0% | Median |
| 19 | 30% | 49% | |
| 20 | 14% | 19% | |
| 21 | 4% | 5% | |
| 22 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 14% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 30% | 86% | |
| 15 | 31% | 56% | Median |
| 16 | 23% | 26% | |
| 17 | 3% | 3% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 5% | 98.9% | |
| 10 | 31% | 94% | |
| 11 | 61% | 62% | Median |
| 12 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 59% | 100% | Median |
| 5 | 36% | 41% | |
| 6 | 5% | 5% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: INSA and YouGov
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 20–23 September 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 2002
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.71%