Opinion Poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, 24–26 September 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 24.5% | 22.9–26.2% | 22.4–26.6% | 22.1–27.1% | 21.3–27.9% |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 17.0% | 15.6–18.5% | 15.2–18.9% | 14.9–19.3% | 14.3–20.0% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 16.0% | 14.7–17.5% | 14.3–17.9% | 14.0–18.2% | 13.4–19.0% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 12.0% | 10.9–13.3% | 10.5–13.7% | 10.2–14.1% | 9.7–14.7% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 8.0% | 7.1–9.2% | 6.8–9.5% | 6.6–9.8% | 6.2–10.3% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 6.5% | 5.7–7.6% | 5.4–7.9% | 5.2–8.1% | 4.8–8.7% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.8% | 3.1–5.1% | 3.0–5.3% | 2.7–5.7% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.8% | 3.1–5.1% | 3.0–5.3% | 2.7–5.7% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.1–2.1% | 1.0–2.3% | 0.9–2.4% | 0.8–2.7% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.1–2.0% | 0.9–2.1% | 0.9–2.3% | 0.7–2.6% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.7–1.7% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.1% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.4–1.5% | 0.3–1.8% |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.0–1.0% |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.0–1.0% |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.0–1.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 21 | 21–27 | 21–27 | 21–27 | 21–27 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 17 | 15–17 | 15–17 | 15–17 | 15–18 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 16 | 15–16 | 14–17 | 14–17 | 13–17 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 12 | 11–12 | 11–12 | 11–12 | 10–12 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 8 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 7–9 | 7–9 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 56% | 99.9% | Median |
| 22 | 6% | 44% | |
| 23 | 7% | 38% | |
| 24 | 3% | 31% | |
| 25 | 0.6% | 28% | |
| 26 | 2% | 27% | |
| 27 | 25% | 25% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 15 | 29% | 99.6% | |
| 16 | 12% | 71% | |
| 17 | 59% | 59% | Median |
| 18 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 2% | 100% | |
| 14 | 3% | 98% | |
| 15 | 27% | 94% | |
| 16 | 58% | 68% | Median |
| 17 | 10% | 10% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 38% | 99.1% | |
| 12 | 61% | 61% | Median |
| 13 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 36% | 99.7% | |
| 8 | 58% | 63% | Median |
| 9 | 5% | 5% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 6% | 100% | |
| 6 | 27% | 94% | |
| 7 | 64% | 67% | Median |
| 8 | 2% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 88% | 100% | Median |
| 4 | 10% | 12% | |
| 5 | 3% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 27% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 65% | 73% | Median |
| 5 | 8% | 8% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 10% | 100% | |
| 2 | 84% | 90% | Median |
| 3 | 6% | 6% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 16% | 100% | |
| 2 | 84% | 84% | Median |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.6% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 64% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 36% | 36% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 90% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 9% | 10% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.5% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Partei des Fortschritts (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei des Fortschritts (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 44% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 56% | 56% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 28 | 0% | 28–33 | 28–33 | 28–33 | 28–33 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 17 | 0% | 15–17 | 15–17 | 15–17 | 15–18 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 16 | 0% | 15–16 | 14–17 | 14–17 | 13–17 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 9 | 0% | 8–9 | 8–9 | 8–10 | 8–10 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 28 | 55% | 99.7% | Median |
| 29 | 10% | 44% | |
| 30 | 0.5% | 34% | |
| 31 | 3% | 33% | |
| 32 | 3% | 31% | |
| 33 | 28% | 28% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 15 | 29% | 99.6% | |
| 16 | 12% | 71% | |
| 17 | 59% | 59% | Median |
| 18 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 2% | 100% | |
| 14 | 3% | 98% | |
| 15 | 27% | 94% | |
| 16 | 58% | 68% | Median |
| 17 | 10% | 10% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 36% | 99.7% | |
| 9 | 59% | 63% | Median |
| 10 | 5% | 5% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 29% | 99.6% | |
| 6 | 64% | 70% | Median |
| 7 | 6% | 6% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Forschungsgruppe Wahlen
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 24–26 September 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1132
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.86%