Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 4 October 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 24.5% | 23.0–26.1% | 22.5–26.6% | 22.2–27.0% | 21.5–27.8% |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 20.0% | 18.6–21.5% | 18.2–21.9% | 17.8–22.3% | 17.2–23.0% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 16.0% | 14.7–17.4% | 14.4–17.8% | 14.1–18.2% | 13.5–18.9% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 11.0% | 9.9–12.2% | 9.6–12.6% | 9.4–12.9% | 8.9–13.5% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 8.0% | 7.1–9.1% | 6.8–9.4% | 6.6–9.7% | 6.2–10.2% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 6.5% | 5.7–7.5% | 5.5–7.8% | 5.3–8.1% | 4.9–8.6% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.8% | 3.2–5.0% | 3.0–5.2% | 2.7–5.6% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.7% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.2–4.1% | 1.9–4.5% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 1.0–1.8% | 0.9–2.0% | 0.8–2.1% | 0.7–2.4% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.7% | 0.8–1.9% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.6–2.3% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.6–1.3% | 0.5–1.5% | 0.5–1.6% | 0.4–1.8% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.2–1.5% |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.0–0.6% | 0.0–0.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 25 | 21–25 | 21–25 | 21–26 | 21–27 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 18 | 18–21 | 18–21 | 18–22 | 16–22 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 14 | 13–15 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 13–17 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 11 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–12 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–10 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 0–2 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 21 | 31% | 99.5% | |
| 22 | 5% | 68% | |
| 23 | 10% | 63% | |
| 24 | 1.1% | 53% | |
| 25 | 49% | 52% | Median |
| 26 | 3% | 3% | |
| 27 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 17 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 18 | 49% | 98% | Median |
| 19 | 3% | 48% | |
| 20 | 8% | 45% | |
| 21 | 34% | 37% | |
| 22 | 3% | 3% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 48% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 12% | 52% | Median |
| 15 | 34% | 41% | |
| 16 | 5% | 7% | |
| 17 | 1.2% | 1.5% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 32% | 100% | |
| 10 | 14% | 68% | |
| 11 | 7% | 54% | Median |
| 12 | 48% | 48% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 49% | 100% | |
| 7 | 10% | 51% | Median |
| 8 | 39% | 40% | |
| 9 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 56% | 97% | Median |
| 7 | 39% | 41% | |
| 8 | 3% | 3% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 9% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 91% | 91% | Median |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 9% | 100% | |
| 3 | 43% | 91% | Median |
| 4 | 48% | 48% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 63% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 37% | 37% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 48% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 52% | 52% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.8% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 96% | 99.2% | Median |
| 2 | 3% | 3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 94% | 94% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 6% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Partei des Fortschritts (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei des Fortschritts (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 6% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 87% | 87% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 95% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 5% | 5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 32 | 0% | 29–32 | 29–32 | 29–34 | 28–35 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 18 | 0% | 18–21 | 18–21 | 18–22 | 16–22 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 14 | 0% | 13–15 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 13–17 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 8 | 0% | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–11 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 28 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 29 | 37% | 98% | |
| 30 | 5% | 61% | |
| 31 | 3% | 56% | |
| 32 | 50% | 53% | Median |
| 33 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 35 | 2% | 2% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 17 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 18 | 49% | 98% | Median |
| 19 | 3% | 48% | |
| 20 | 8% | 45% | |
| 21 | 34% | 37% | |
| 22 | 3% | 3% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 48% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 12% | 52% | Median |
| 15 | 34% | 41% | |
| 16 | 5% | 7% | |
| 17 | 1.2% | 1.5% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 49% | 100% | |
| 8 | 9% | 51% | Median |
| 9 | 39% | 42% | |
| 10 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 5 | 63% | 96% | Median |
| 6 | 33% | 33% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: INSA and YouGov
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 4 October 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1237
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.59%