Opinion Poll by Forsa, 1–7 October 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 24.5% 23.3–25.8% 22.9–26.1% 22.6–26.4% 22.1–27.0%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 17.0% 15.9–18.1% 15.7–18.4% 15.4–18.7% 14.9–19.3%
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 17.0% 15.9–18.1% 15.7–18.4% 15.4–18.7% 14.9–19.3%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 11.0% 10.1–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.5% 9.3–12.9%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 6.5% 5.9–7.3% 5.7–7.5% 5.5–7.7% 5.2–8.1%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 6.0% 5.4–6.7% 5.2–7.0% 5.0–7.1% 4.7–7.5%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.0% 2.6–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.1%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.6–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.1%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 2.2% 1.9–2.7% 1.8–2.9% 1.7–3.0% 1.5–3.3%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.1% 1.8–2.6% 1.7–2.8% 1.6–2.9% 1.4–3.1%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 1.6% 1.3–2.1% 1.2–2.2% 1.2–2.3% 1.0–2.5%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.6% 0.9–1.7% 0.8–1.8% 0.7–2.0%
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 0.5% 0.4–0.8% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–0.9% 0.2–1.1%
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) 0.0% 0.5% 0.4–0.8% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–0.9% 0.2–1.1%
Partei des Fortschritts (*) 0.0% 0.4% 0.3–0.7% 0.3–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0%
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.6% 0.2–0.7% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 23 22–24 22–24 22–25 21–26
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 17 15–17 15–17 15–17 14–18
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 16 16–17 15–18 15–18 15–18
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 10 9–11 9–12 9–12 9–12
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 6 5–6 5–7 5–7 5–7
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 3 3–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 2–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partei des Fortschritts (*) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 1.3% 100%  
22 13% 98.6%  
23 51% 85% Median
24 32% 34%  
25 2% 3%  
26 0.5% 0.5%  
27 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 1.3% 100%  
15 12% 98.7%  
16 27% 86%  
17 58% 60% Median
18 2% 2%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 7% 100%  
16 68% 93% Median
17 18% 26%  
18 8% 8%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.2% 100%  
9 10% 99.8%  
10 51% 89% Median
11 31% 39%  
12 7% 7%  
13 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.2% 100%  
5 16% 99.8%  
6 73% 84% Median
7 11% 11%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.2% 100%  
5 41% 99.8%  
6 52% 59% Median
7 6% 6%  
8 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 10% 100%  
3 41% 90% Median
4 49% 49%  
5 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 46% 100%  
3 53% 54% Median
4 1.5% 1.5%  
5 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 7% 100%  
2 51% 93% Median
3 42% 42%  
4 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 19% 100%  
2 70% 81% Median
3 11% 11%  
4 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 15% 100%  
2 85% 85% Median
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 87% 100% Median
2 13% 13%  
3 0% 0%  

Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 24% 100% Last Result
1 76% 76% Median
2 0% 0%  

Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Last Result, Median
1 11% 11%  
2 0% 0%  

Partei des Fortschritts (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei des Fortschritts (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 47% 100% Last Result
1 53% 53% Median
2 0% 0%  

Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 53% 100% Last Result, Median
1 47% 47%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) 0 30 0% 28–31 28–31 28–32 28–32
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 16 0% 16–17 15–18 15–18 15–18
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 17 0% 15–17 15–17 15–17 14–18
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 7 0% 7–8 7–8 7–9 6–9
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–7

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 10% 100%  
29 2% 90%  
30 66% 88% Median
31 20% 23%  
32 3% 3%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 7% 100%  
16 68% 93% Median
17 18% 26%  
18 8% 8%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 1.3% 100%  
15 12% 98.7%  
16 27% 86%  
17 58% 60% Median
18 2% 2%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 2% 100%  
7 50% 98%  
8 43% 48% Median
9 5% 5%  
10 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 13% 100%  
5 84% 87% Median
6 1.4% 2%  
7 1.1% 1.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations