Opinion Poll by Allensbach, 11 October 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 28.1% | 26.4–30.0% | 25.9–30.5% | 25.5–31.0% | 24.7–31.9% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 15.9% | 14.5–17.4% | 14.1–17.8% | 13.7–18.2% | 13.1–19.0% |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 15.9% | 14.5–17.4% | 14.1–17.8% | 13.7–18.2% | 13.1–19.0% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 10.4% | 9.3–11.7% | 8.9–12.1% | 8.7–12.4% | 8.2–13.0% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 8.9% | 7.9–10.2% | 7.6–10.5% | 7.3–10.8% | 6.9–11.4% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 7.5% | 6.5–8.6% | 6.3–9.0% | 6.0–9.3% | 5.6–9.8% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 4.4% | 3.7–5.3% | 3.5–5.6% | 3.3–5.9% | 3.0–6.3% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.1–2.0% | 1.0–2.2% | 0.9–2.4% | 0.7–2.7% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 1.0–1.9% | 0.9–2.1% | 0.8–2.3% | 0.7–2.6% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 1.0–1.9% | 0.9–2.1% | 0.8–2.3% | 0.7–2.6% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.0% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.3% | 0.3–1.4% | 0.2–1.6% |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.0–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 26 | 26–28 | 26–30 | 25–30 | 25–30 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 16 | 15–16 | 14–17 | 14–17 | 13–17 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 15 | 14–15 | 14–16 | 14–17 | 12–17 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 10 | 10–12 | 9–12 | 7–12 | 7–13 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 8 | 7–9 | 6–10 | 6–10 | 6–11 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–9 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 25 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 26 | 55% | 96% | Median |
| 27 | 2% | 41% | |
| 28 | 30% | 39% | |
| 29 | 1.5% | 9% | |
| 30 | 7% | 7% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 13 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 14 | 3% | 98% | |
| 15 | 33% | 95% | |
| 16 | 54% | 62% | Median |
| 17 | 7% | 7% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 14 | 32% | 98% | |
| 15 | 60% | 66% | Median |
| 16 | 3% | 6% | |
| 17 | 3% | 3% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 3% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 9 | 4% | 96% | |
| 10 | 61% | 92% | Median |
| 11 | 5% | 31% | |
| 12 | 26% | 26% | |
| 13 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 7% | 100% | |
| 7 | 3% | 93% | |
| 8 | 79% | 90% | Median |
| 9 | 5% | 11% | |
| 10 | 5% | 6% | |
| 11 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 1.4% | 100% | |
| 6 | 33% | 98.6% | |
| 7 | 58% | 65% | Median |
| 8 | 6% | 8% | |
| 9 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 4% | 100% | |
| 4 | 62% | 96% | Median |
| 5 | 34% | 35% | |
| 6 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 31% | 100% | |
| 2 | 68% | 69% | Median |
| 3 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 38% | 99.5% | |
| 2 | 61% | 61% | Median |
| 3 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 92% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 7% | 8% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 95% | 96% | Median |
| 2 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 94% | 95% | Median |
| 2 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Partei des Fortschritts (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei des Fortschritts (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 6% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 78% | 78% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 33 | 0% | 33–36 | 33–36 | 32–37 | 30–37 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 15 | 0% | 14–15 | 14–16 | 14–17 | 12–17 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 16 | 0% | 15–16 | 14–17 | 14–17 | 13–17 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 9 | 0% | 9–10 | 7–10 | 7–11 | 7–12 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 6 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–8 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 32 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 33 | 53% | 97% | Median |
| 34 | 27% | 44% | |
| 35 | 4% | 17% | |
| 36 | 9% | 13% | |
| 37 | 4% | 4% | |
| 38 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 14 | 32% | 98% | |
| 15 | 60% | 66% | Median |
| 16 | 3% | 6% | |
| 17 | 3% | 3% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 13 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 14 | 3% | 98% | |
| 15 | 33% | 95% | |
| 16 | 54% | 62% | Median |
| 17 | 7% | 7% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 7% | 100% | |
| 8 | 2% | 93% | |
| 9 | 79% | 90% | Median |
| 10 | 8% | 11% | |
| 11 | 3% | 3% | |
| 12 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 3% | 100% | |
| 5 | 4% | 97% | |
| 6 | 91% | 93% | Median |
| 7 | 2% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Allensbach
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 11 October 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1041
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 3.48%